Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal stimulus alone won’t revive Russia’s economy The discussion about how to soften the fallout from the Ukraine crisis on the Russian economy has started to shift towards fiscal stimulus, with key ministers advocating looser fiscal policy earlier... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery in late 2013 has now fizzled out The final estimate of 2013 GDP data reveals that Russia’s economy picked up a little pace towards the end of last year. But our GDP Tracker suggests that the recovery had already started to fizzle out... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Two-speed growth in manufacturing Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month, but in the highly-open economies of Central Europe the data are still consistent with robust manufacturing output growth, of 7-10% y/y. By... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Crisis in Crimea takes its toll on Russia The escalation of the crisis on the Crimean peninsula is already taking a toll on Russia. The economy was doing little more than stagnate even before geopolitical tensions flared up. And large scale... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets suffer as Ukraine crisis deepens Russia’s financial markets have posted heavy losses following the escalation of the crisis on the Crimean peninsula. Indeed, Russia’s stock market and the ruble have been the worst performers among... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ukraine crisis is a far bigger threat to Russia than the West The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant impact on the European economy and global financial markets. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome appears to be a limited exchange... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Winners and losers from the ruble’s fall The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few months is unlikely to have a major impact on Russia’s economy as a whole, but it will create winners and losers within the economy. The government is... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian outflows could total $70bn in Q1 We estimate that net private sector outflows of capital from Russia have totalled $50bn since the start of the year – equivalent to 2.5% of GDP. What’s more, if the current pace of capital flight... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s “temporary” rate hike to be longer-lasting Having hiked interest rates at an unscheduled meeting earlier this month, it was always likely that the Central Bank of Russia would leave them unchanged at today’s (scheduled) Board meeting... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Russia’s economy to Western sanctions? The direct economic impact of the sanctions that have apparently been agreed by Western governments on Russia is likely to be limited. But the indirect impact – including the anticipation of further... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Ukraine crisis clouds outlook, but Central Europe recovering The crisis in Ukraine has unsettled the markets, but the economic fallout should be contained to the two countries directly involved – Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is by far the more fragile of the two... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis a political, not economic, crisis for CEE The economies of Central and Eastern European are the most exposed to spillovers from the crisis in Ukraine, but as things stand the economic impact is likely to be limited. Admittedly, the crisis has... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the economic costs of the Ukraine crisis for Russia Although financial markets in Russia have tumbled today, the immediate fallout from the Ukraine crisis for Russia’s economy might well be less severe than many fear. Nonetheless, with growth already... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central European manufacturers leading the recovery February’s PMIs show that manufacturing in Emerging Europe continued to strengthen. Poland and the Czech Republic are leading the way and, encouragingly, the PMI components suggest that domestic... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the recent drop in the ruble Events in Ukraine have been one factor behind the fall in the Russian ruble, but domestic problems have played a role too. The central bank (CBR) has already voiced its concern that exchange rate... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industrial data point to diverging growth paths Industry in the highly-open economies of Central Europe has gathered steam in recent months, with output expanding by as much as 6-7% y/y. Manufacturers have been supported by the strengthening of the... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
