Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: shrinking CA surplus to erode sanctions resilience A widening of Russia’s budget deficit next year to 2.5% of GDP will increase pressure on the government to keep a firm grip on non-military spending. But it should be able to finance the shortfall... 14th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Winter recession in motion Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Russian inflation fell further last month, to 12.0% y/y, and the breakdown provided further signs that demand remains very weak. But this won’t offset the central bank’s concerns about pro-inflation... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly We will know more about oil supply next week Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Unpacking the G7 oil price cap ahead of 5th December There are only a few days to go until the next packages of EU sanctions on Russia targeting its oil trade come into force. There are a few key details still left to be finalised, but it seems to us... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag, but suggest that weakening demand and the fading boost from easing supply shortages has begun to take a heavier toll on industrial sectors in... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) The October retail sales and industrial production data for Russia tell more of the same story: an economy that has passed the worst of the downturn, but that is desperately struggling for momentum... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil price cap lacking consensus, Russia’s 2023 budget Details about a potential price cap on Russian oil this week of $65-70pb are bringing us to the view that it won't have much of an immediate impact on Russia. We think the combination of the EU oil... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Signs of resilience, but recession still likely Growing domestic and external headwinds have taken a bigger toll on the region’s economies in recent months, with growth slowing sharply in Turkey and Israel in Q3 and GDP contracting outright in... 24th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2022) Russia’s economy appeared to stabilise in Q3 as the 4% y/y contraction in GDP reported by Rosstat today is consistent with output rising marginally in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms. That said, there’s... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in Russia fell more sharply than expected in October, to 12.6% y/y, but this won’t be enough to prompt the central bank to restart its easing cycle as policymakers are concerned about... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) There were broad-based falls in Russian industrial production and retail sales in September. The economy may have narrowly avoided another q/q contraction in GDP in Q3 as a whole, but there’s clearly... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Black Sea grain deal blow adds impetus to lofty prices Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative will exacerbate sky-high prices and tight global supply, and adds to the likelihood that prices hover around historical highs for the... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q3 2022) & Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The 0.4% q/q contraction in Czech GDP in Q3 provides the first clear sign that the economy as a whole is buckling. We think the economy is now in a recession which will last until early next year... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR’s Nabiullina shows growing inflation concerns Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina’s post-meeting press conference reinforced the message that policymakers are increasingly concerned about pro-inflationary risks, including those... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 22) 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
