Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of the region in August, although they generally remain at weak levels and suggest that industry has continued to struggle in Q3. 2nd September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for July were a mixed bag and suggest that the economy maintained a steady pace of growth at the start of this quarter. But we still... 28th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, CBRT’s forward guidance Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia continued this week and although developments are highly uncertain at this stage, it has big implications for the war. On balance, we think it could delay any... 23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q2) and Consumer Prices (Jul.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q2, to 4.0% y/y, suggests that the economy has lost a bit of momentum. But overheating pressures remain alive and the increase in inflation to 9.1% y/y in July... 9th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The manufacturing PMIs for July suggest that industrial sectors lost a bit of momentum in Turkey and Russia at the start of Q3, although demand conditions still appear very strong in Russia. In both... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russia’s economy lost a bit of steam in June, but it still looks like GDP growth over Q2 as a whole was very strong, with growth tracking at 4.5-5.0% y/y. 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up to the plate with a 200bp hike to its key policy rate today, to 18.00%, in response to the overheating economy and a renewed surge in inflation. While we think... 26th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine? Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might... 23rd July 2024 · 16 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Trump’s return and the Ukraine war – Key macro and market implications 25th July 2024, 3:00PM BST Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November.
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Current account deficits, MNB rate cut guidance Balance of payments data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week showed unexpected current account deficits in Poland and Czechia in May, but the big picture is that external positions are... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data out of Emerging Europe suggest that economic growth in Central Europe... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in Russian inflation to 8.6% y/y in June, alongside weekly figures suggesting that an even larger rise is possible in July, seals the deal on an interest rate hike later this month. We now... 10th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly The hawks come out in their droves Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (May) The latest activity data suggest that Russia’s economy continued to motor along in May, driven by stronger growth in industry. The economy is clearly overheating and this continues to fuel inflation... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The manufacturing PMIs for June provide encouraging signs that a rebalancing of Turkey’s economy is underway, with domestic demand weakening and inflation pressures softening. But in Russia, the... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
