Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Sep.)

The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for September were a bit stronger than expected, although GDP growth still probably slowed over Q3 as a whole towards 3.0% y/y.

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s retail sales shocker, BRICS and the dollar

The substantial drop in Polish retail sales in September has been interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the engine of the economy is beginning to fail, but we think that these fears are...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp today, to 21.00%, is evidence that – despite President Putin’s efforts at this week’s BRICS summit to...

25th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Current accounts, BRICS preview, Sinwar death

The current account data released across the region over the past week show that external positions have continued to improve in some countries (notably Turkey), while in others they are deteriorating...

18th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What to expect from the BRICS+ summit

The BRICS+ summit in Russia next week is likely to see another push on expansion, mainly to close allies of China and Russia. But limited economic benefits for potential new members, divisions among...

15th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Headline inflation fell to 8.6% y/y in Russia in September but this was a touch less than expected and the breakdown showed that core price pressures are easing only very slowly. It now looks very...

11th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation

Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing...

4th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia’s defence spending to raise inflation, fiscal risks

The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)

The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMIs in Turkey and Russia in September provide further evidence that their economies are slowing. But the continued rise in the prices balances of the survey in...

1st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Romania’s fiscal risks, Russian economy under strain

Romania’s fiscal watchdog warned this week that the country’s budget deficit could come in a lot wider than the government originally planned this year at 8.0% of GDP, and we think that investors may...

27th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus...

26th September 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Inflation and fiscal risks simmering

We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters...

17th September 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

The decision by the Russian central bank to hike its policy rate today by 100bp, to 19.00%, suggests that policymakers are even more concerned about the inflation outlook than we’d previously thought...

13th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.)

Russia’s headline inflation rate held steady at 9.1% y/y in August which, while slightly stronger than expected, won’t tip the balance towards another interest rate hike at the central bank’s meeting...

11th September 2024 · 1 min read