Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2022) The 3.5% expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q1 is consistent with a small contraction in q/q terms, and this will almost certainly be followed by a steep fall in output in Q2 as the effects of Western... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Russian inflation came in broadly as expected in April, rising from 16.7% y/y to a two-decade high of 17.8% y/y and it looks like further increases in the coming months will be modest. This will... 13th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas supply to Europe to remain uncertain News of force majeure on one of the pipelines in Ukraine bringing Russian natural gas to Europe just adds to our conviction that Europe is going to struggle to meet its gas needs over the next year... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s trade surplus soars as imports collapse Russia has suspended the publication of monthly trade data, but figures from its trading partners show that import values plunged 45% m/m in March while exports rose slightly amid high commodity... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this... 4th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s growing imbalances, Russian gas flows Comments from Hungary's central bank this week suggest that policymakers are moving closer towards a joint tightening of monetary and fiscal policy to cool demand and narrow the twin deficits... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR slashes rates and shifts its focus Russia’s central bank (CBR) cut its policy rate by another 300bp to 14.0% today and the communications suggest that the CBR is now more focused on boosting credit growth than it has been in the past... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks mount as commodity prices surge Surging commodity prices have pushed up inflation across the region and we expect inflation to hit fresh multi-year highs in the coming months. A loss of Russian gas supplies should not lead to... 28th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) The latest activity data for Russia beat expectations in March and suggest that the economy entered a softer downturn than had been expected. We have reservations about the accuracy of the data, but... 27th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Russia weaponisation of natural gas poses economic risks Russia’s decision to suspend gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria from today because of a payments dispute will only strengthen the EU’s resolve to end its dependency on Russian gas, keeping gas... 27th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s crisis easing, Poland’s energy supply boom Comments from Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina this week underline the view that the most acute phase of Russia's crisis may have passed and that interest rates are likely to fall... 22nd April 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recession risks take centre stage The Russian economy will collapse this year and we expect spillovers from the war in Ukraine to cause a recession in many of the smaller countries in the region, particularly Bulgaria and the Baltic... 20th April 2022 · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Surging food prices and supply fears a threat to EMs Most EMs are not heavily dependent on Russia or Ukraine for their domestic food supplies, but there are key pockets of vulnerability due to large wheat, corn and vegetable seed/oil exports to Turkey... 13th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The 7.6% m/m rise in consumer prices in Russia in March was the highest monthly increase since the 1990s. It pushed the headline inflation rate up to 16.7% y/y and we think it will rise towards 23% y... 8th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy sanctions ratchet up, Russia close to default? This week’s announcement that the EU will ban the import of Russian coal from mid-August will not have a major impact on Russian export revenues, but it marks a clear shift in the EU’s aim to target... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Early evidence of a hard hit to Russia’s economy Timely indicators suggest that Russian manufacturing contracted by around 20% y/y in March and that consumer spending fell by 10% y/y at the start of April. Russia’s economic downturn looks set to... 7th April 2022 · 3 mins read
