The largest increase in rice prices on record has provided a sizeable boost to inflation in recent months but we expect rice inflation to slow sharply this year. While our forecast is a 0.6%-pt decline in the contribution of rice to headline inflation by …
5th February 2025
Regular earnings growth will hold strong at just under 3% for most of this year Growth in base pay rose the most since 1992 in December, and we think it will continue to hold strong in this year. According to today’s preliminary estimate, labour cash …
4th February 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. More slack than meets the eye With the labour market continuing to cool, another 50bp cut by the RBNZ later this month is all but nailed on. The 0.1% q/q fall in employment in Q4 …
While we expect the US to start a trade war this year, we doubt that the initial reaction to the tariffs on Monday will necessarily set the tone for 2025. To re-cap, US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada over the …
Despite showing a modest fall in job openings, the totality of the December JOLTS data are consistent with a labour market that has stabilised at a healthy level. Despite falling to 7.60m, from an upwardly revised 8.16m in November, job openings have …
Although President Trump has hit pause on tariffs on Canada, his communications suggest he still wants a broader agreement on various trade issues. Given the chaotic political situation in Canada, it seems unlikely that such an agreement can be made in …
Structural changes in our economies have been the primary drivers of sector performance over the last 25 years. Online shopping has grown from a niche business at the turn of the century to accounting for a third of retail sales in some markets, while the …
3rd February 2025
We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the outlook for interest rates in major advanced economies as the Fed hit the pause button while the ECB cut again. (See a recording here .) The key message was that the threat of US tariffs and the …
Against the backdrop of potential US tariffs, our new Oil Tariff Impact Tracker is a vital resource for tracking potential near-term changes in North American oil production, trade flows, and prices. This dashboard is no longer being updated. If you …
Tracking the knock-on effects of US tariffs on oil …
We expect Germany’s next government to reform the national fiscal rule to allow some tax cuts and increased public investment. But it is likely to make slow progress on structural reforms such as digitalisation and improving the environment for start-ups. …
Overview – Our forecast that mortgage rates will fall further than widely expected suggests that a decent recovery in transactions will allow house prices to rise by around 3.5% this year and by 4.5% next year, which would be a bit more than the …
A mixed start to 2025 as Egypt turns a corner January’s batch of PMIs showed a mixed result as the region’s two largest economies, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, recorded their strongest outturns in several years, while surveys from Kuwait and Qatar softened. In …
After initially promising unspecified "countermeasures", the Chinese authorities have now fleshed out their retaliation to the Trump administration's 10% tariff hike on all US imports from China. The measures are fairly modest, at least relative to US …
The threat by President Trump to cut funding to South Africa due to the controversial land expropriation bill will (if implemented) have limited direct economic effects. The bigger concern is that the threat will create tensions within the ruling …
The latest PMIs suggests that the weakness in EM manufacturing at the end of last year has continued into 2025. While the events of today have highlighted the uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy, tariffs will prove another headwind to EM manufacturing …
This weekend’s US trade policy announcements and Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Europe raise the question of whether there is a bigger risk to the euro-zone than we had thought. This Update recaps on four key points about how the euro-zone economy …
Manufacturing recovery to prove short-lived The ISM manufacturing index finally rose back above the theoretical no-change level of 50.0 in January, but the trade war kicking off across the continent means that the recovery is likely to be short-lived. …
US President Trump has ended weeks of speculation and announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. We think there are a few points to note on their implications for global markets. First, despite the big moves so far, investors still seem to be holding …
The additional 10% tariff that Donald Trump has applied on Chinese goods will have a relatively modest impact on China’s economy, especially if the PBOC allows the renminbi to adjust. But this is likely just the first round in a protracted trade war with …
January’s inflation data won’t change ECB policymakers’ minds about the likely near-term path for interest rates. The fact that services inflation remained high will mean that they will prefer to loosen policy in small steps. The small increase in …
Growth outlook continues to sour Hong Kong’s GDP growth picked up a touch in Q4, expanding by 2.4% y/y in Q4, up from 1.8% in Q4 (the Bloomberg median was +2.7% and our forecast was +2.3%). In q/q terms the economy grew by 0.8% after contracting by 1.1% …
Central Europe struggling as tariff threat looms The manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe rose slightly last month, but the big picture is that they remained at weak levels. And the threat of US tariffs on the EU poses an additional headwind for the …
The past week was bookended by developments in two areas that will play a significant role in shaping the year ahead: tariffs and technology. Tariff man strikes On Saturday, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as on …
Donald Trump raised the stakes for the global economy with an announcement of 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, and 10% tariffs on goods from China. What are the immediate macro and market consequences of this move, which countries could be …
31st January 2025
Still on course for another large rate cut The sharp jump in the m/m rate of Turkish inflation, to 5.0%, was largely driven by one-off factors. And so long as the February CPI figures come in much softer (as we expect), we still think it’s most likely …
The January PMIs for Asia were generally weak, supporting our view that manufacturing activity and GDP growth in the region are likely to remain below trend in the near term. And with inflation back to target in most Asian economies, we think central …
Australia’s housing slowdown continued into the new year, as demand softened further. Although the prospect of imminent rate cuts could temporarily buoy buyer sentiment, we don’t expect a meaningful rally in the housing market given that affordability is …
RBA's February rate cut is still on Although retail sales rose strongly last quarter, we doubt the pickup in consumer spending will keep the RBA from beginning its easing cycle later this month. The 0.1% m/m fall in sales values in December was a much …
Donald Trump ended weeks of speculation on Saturday with the formal announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. As those countries respond Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder on this special episode of The Weekly …
2nd February 2025
Trump hits Canada, China & Mexico with tariffs President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on China from this coming Tuesday, (with the only partial exemption for Canadian energy imports that …
Tax breaks included in India’s FY25/26 Union Budget announcement should provide some support to household consumption but, overall, the measures fall some way short of constituting major stimulus. There is always a chance of slippage, but the Finance …
1st February 2025
Recovery in mortgage lending will pause in Q2 Demand for mortgage credit jumped in Q1 in response to the drop in mortgage rates over the second half of 2023. But a rise in financial market interest rates this week, due to higher-than-expected inflation in …
Fed in no hurry with tariffs coming soon Underlying economic growth remains solid The 2.3% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP came broadly in line with the updated nowcast estimate maintained by our data team. (See here .) Although GDP growth slowed …
Despite the best efforts of the Canadian government to convince US officials that the border is secure, President Trump reiterated on Thursday that his administration will impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada this Saturday. That would be a big blow …
The dollar looks set to come out on top against most currencies after a week of central bank meetings, corporate earnings and economic data generally shifted yield gaps in its favour and reinforced US exceptionalism. But it is US trade policy that has …
EU policymakers have stepped up their calls for progress towards Capital Markets Union and there will be steps in that direction in the coming years. But we aren’t holding our breath for major change. And even if policymakers do more than we anticipate, …
South Africa’s tough love on SOE’s unlikely to last South Africa’s SOEs have received tough love recently, hurt by a reluctant government trying to keep the public on side and public finances in check. Eventually, we think unpopular decisions will need to …
Putin’s turn to up the ante We argued last Friday that President Trump’s comments on the war in Ukraine were likely to be met with a cold reception in Russia, dampening hopes of a quick end to the conflict. And an interview given by President Putin this …
Something’s coming… Latin America has been at the forefront of President Trump’s tariff latest threats. These included a (short-lived) announcement that he would slap punitive measures on Colombia, reports that the US will press ahead with a 25% import …
An initially dry January for euro-zone watchers ended with a data deluge in the last few days which has underlined that the euro-zone economy is struggling and offers hope that inflation is easing. The most striking releases were Q4 GDP data published …
Metals flows adjust to tariffs & sanctions Industrial metals prices have been buffeted by news of potential trade disruptions this week, as fears of tariffs and sanctions loom large. President Trump has pledged to place additional tariffs on aluminium, …
DeepSeek doesn’t mean China is overtaking in AI US markets reeled at the start of this week as DeepSeek’s launch of a “reasoning” model similar to the leading offering from OpenAI focused attention on the Chinese firm’s success in developing …
Real spending growth solid, price pressures muted December’s personal income and spending report brought news of another strong gain in real consumption, but with price pressures muted. As expected, core PCE prices increased by a muted 0.16% m/m in …
Still struggling for momentum ahead of potential tariff hit The larger-than-expected decline in GDP in November and flash estimate of only a moderate rebound in December suggest that growth was 1.6% annualised last quarter, a little lower than we and the …
Economies in Eastern Europe picked up a bit of momentum at the end of 2024, but we don’t think this marks the start of a sustained improvement. Timely indicators of activity have weakened in early 2025, and lacklustre external demand will remain a …
The Chancellor’s plans to “kickstart economic growth”, which she set out in a speech this week, probably won’t lift the economy out of its recent malaise in the coming quarters. But at the margin, the announcement of some policies and initiatives aimed at …
The economy should accelerate over the near-term, driven by consumption-boosting policy support. But the stimulus-driven recovery will be short-lived. We expect growth to slow later in the year, as the impact of stimulus fades and US tariffs create a …
We don’t think US equity market outperformance is over yet, despite the challenge from DeepSeek. The tone in US equity markets has turned more positive lately, with a modest gain on Thursday and futures pointing (at the time of writing) to another in …
