Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
Berlin became Germany’s largest investment market in 2015, with investment growth of 120%, far outpacing that in the other major cities. Despite Berlin ranking far above Frankfurt in surveys of investment prospects for 2016, over the coming years it is in …
25th January 2016
January’s German Ifo survey brought the strongest signals yet that the recent global economic concerns and associated financial market gyrations have started to hit the euro-zone’s biggest economy. … German Ifo Survey …
We said after December’s “Draghi disappointment” that we would take future verbal policy steers from the ECB with a healthy pinch of salt. But there are some good reasons to expect the President and colleagues to follow through on their latest dovish …
22nd January 2016
January’s decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy got off to a slow start this year. With the twin boosts from previous sharp falls in oil prices and the euro set to fade, a further slowdown is on the way. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
Lisbon has been highlighted as one of Europe’s top cities for investment prospects this year. Yet property yields are already at record lows. And as Portugal’s weak economic fundamentals limit the scope for a positive shock to income growth, it is hard to …
The ECB signalled firmly today that further policy loosening is imminent. While we are wary of putting too much faith in its communications after last month’s disappointment, there are good reasons to expect it to cut interest rates and accelerate its …
21st January 2016
Fears about China, as well as plunging oil and equity prices, have dominated the start of 2016. However, we believe that concerns over China are overstated and that oil prices will begin to recover later in the year. As such, we think that commercial …
There would appear to be a good chance that Greece will pass the first formal review of its third bailout programme. But nothing is certain and even a successful outcome won’t necessarily mark the beginning of the end of Greece’s six-year long crisis. … …
19th January 2016
January’s German ZEW survey confirmed that recent turbulence in global financial markets and the soft tone of the domestic hard data have dented investor sentiment. … German ZEW …
In PWC’s 2016 Emerging Trends in Real Estate survey, the most notable change in the city investment prospects segment is Athens’ fall back to the bottom of the rankings. Elsewhere, investment prospects were generally deemed to be more positive than a year …
18th January 2016
Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the extra deflationary pressure that it has caused could have …
The disconnect between the surveys and the official data for Q4 became ever clearer last week, with the release of disappointingly weak November industrial production figures. While the surveys were probably too upbeat and the hard data too gloomy, it now …
15th January 2016
The euro-zone goods trade surplus rose in November, suggesting that exports might have added to GDP growth in Q4. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little contribution to growth this year. … Euro-zone Trade …
The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) shock decision to abandon its ceiling for the franc reflected its judgement that the policy was just not sustainable. Unless it can reverse the franc’s appreciation with other policies, the downward impact on growth and …
After disappointing markets in December, we expect the ECB to indicate at its forthcoming meeting that the door is still open to bolder policy support. The Bank is unlikely to alter policy for now given the firm tone of recent survey data and the damage …
14th January 2016
The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to intervene in the currency market. … Swedish Consumer …
We expect strong competition for prime assets to push yields lower again in 2016. With prime income yields at such low levels, this is likely to result in further growth in the demand for secondary assets. This will drive a reduction in the …
While the euro-zone economy ended last year with some momentum, expectations of a further acceleration in growth in 2016 will be disappointed. The boost to consumer spending from the decline in oil prices and inflation will fade, while export growth is …
13th January 2016
November’s fall in euro-zone industrial production added to evidence that the economy performed worse in Q4 than the surveys have implied and perhaps even failed to match Q3’s modest 0.3% expansion. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
Although France’s headline inflation rate edged up in December, the big picture is that price pressures in the euro-zone’s second-largest economy remain very weak. … French Consumer Prices …
The high level of industrial take-up in Italy over the past two years demonstrates the strong effect that e-commerce has had on occupier demand. With the Italian economy now on a positive, albeit subdued, growth path, and the availability of modern space …
12th January 2016
European commercial property investment is likely to have reached a new peak in 2015. But, we believe there are good grounds for expecting further growth in 2016 as new capital sources and other acquisitive investors continue to target European property, …
11th January 2016
Perhaps the most notable positive surprise in the euro-zone last year was the strength of household spending. Spending looks likely to have expanded by 1.5% or more in 2015. This would be the strongest increase since 2007 and account for almost all of …
8th January 2016
November’s disappointingly weak German and French industrial production figures provided further evidence that the hard data on the euro-zone economy is failing to live up to the more optimistic picture painted by the surveys. … German & French …
December’s EC Business and Consumer Survey added to evidence that euro-zone GDP growth accelerated in Q4, but the consumer recovery seems to be losing pace. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemp. & Retail Sales …
7th January 2016
Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that it will probably only be able to stem the krona’s …
The small rise in the euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December suggested that the region’s recovery may have gained a little pace in the final quarter of 2015. But GDP growth is still too slow to provide a meaningful boost to core inflation. … Euro-zone …
6th January 2016
Over the past three years office capital value growth in Dublin has far outpaced other euro-zone markets. Yet with the vacancy rate at its lowest point in 15 years, and GDP set to average 4.3% over 2016 and 2017, there seems scope for rental growth to …
December’s euro-zone consumer price inflation rate of +0.2% left an average inflation rate for 2015 as a whole of zero – the lowest rate since the single currency was formed. Headline inflation will almost certainly rise during 2016 as negative energy …
5th January 2016
Commercial property investment in 2015 in the Nordics reached its highest level on record. This was driven by a large increase in the average deal size and strong growth in demand from foreign investors. We think that activity will remain strong in 2016, …
December’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone consumer prices figures supported our view that bolder ECB policy action will ultimately be needed to bring inflation back to target on a sustained basis. … Euro-zone Flash CPI …
The latest fiscal data suggested that the peripheral countries continued to improve their budgetary positions at the back end of 2015. But there is a distinct risk of fiscal slippage in 2016, particularly in Spain and Portugal following their recent …
4th January 2016
December’s German CPI data confirm that the relative strength of the economy is exerting no upward pressure on inflation and support our view that the ECB will need to do more to hit its inflation target for the region as a whole. … German Flash CPI & …
Muted economic growth in the next two years will prevent Belgian high streets from seeing much of an improvement in demand for space. As a result, we expect prime retail rental values to rise by only 2.1% p.a. in Antwerp and an even weaker 1.4% p.a. in …
24th December 2015
The recent pick-up in German wage growth is encouraging and we think that fears of a sharp rise in inflation and loss of competitiveness are unwarranted. Our one misgiving is that the ECB might respond to modest inflationary pressure in Germany by …
23rd December 2015
The latest employment data show that office employment is far outpacing total jobs growth in most euro-zone economies. And, even in economies such as Germany and France, where office jobs growth has been weak, there are reasons to believe that rents …
The inconclusive result of the Spanish general election is set to trigger a period of political uncertainty which could slow the country’s economic recovery. But it also represents another blow to the euro-zone’s policy of onerous austerity. … Spanish …
21st December 2015
The stronger-than-expected performance of the euro-zone economy in 2015 and the additional policy support recently provided by the ECB might appear to provide the conditions for a further improvement in the currency union’s outlook in 2016. But two of the …
18th December 2015
The US stock market has reacted positively to the first rate hike by the Fed, and we don’t expect it to be derailed by the onset of further tightening. Admittedly, at around 4%, the cyclically-adjusted earnings yield is low relative to its long-run …
17th December 2015
Employment in the euro-zone is expanding at a healthy pace and survey data point to a positive outlook. But this hides a very mixed story amongst different countries, and the overall picture is stillone of plenty of labour market slack and very little …
The likely advent of a coalition government after this Sunday’s Spanish general election looks unlikely to bring the country’s robust economic recovery to a halt. But a period of political instability could certainly take some of the steam out of the …
After a record-breaking year in 2015, the latest data suggest that German industrial occupier demand will moderate next year. But, given supply constraints and occupier bases that are more aligned to distribution than production, we nevertheless expect …
December’s small fall in the headline German Ifo index left it still at a high level. But the sharper decline in the current conditions component supported evidence from recent hard data that growth may have reached a peak. … German Ifo Survey …
The Norges Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, but with growth slowing and inflation set to fall, interest rate cuts look highly likely next year, starting at the next policy meeting in March. … Norges Bank signals rate cuts next …
There are reasons to think that the advent of tighter monetary policy in the US will not have a materially negative impact on the currency union. But there is no room for euro-zone policymakers to be complacent. … Will the Fed’s lift-off cause a euro-zone …
16th December 2015
October’s euro-zone goods trade data revealed a further slowdown in export growth, adding to the evidence that the boost from the weaker euro is fading. We suspect that the trade surplus will narrow next year, dragging on the region’s economic recovery. … …
December’s small fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI left it still pointing to steady but modest growth in the region. But the Paris attacks have taken a toll on France, leaving the economy close to stagnation again. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
