The chance of the ECB launching a digital euro has risen over the past year. However, it is unlikely to see light of day until 2029 at the earliest and, by design, total holdings are likely to be fairly limited. We first wrote about the ECB’s plans for a …
16th January 2026
The trade deal struck between Taiwan and the US, alongside another bumper earnings report from TSMC, strengthens our conviction that Taiwan will record another year of rapid GDP growth in 2026. There remains uncertainty over whether the trade deal (or at …
The yen conundrum Rumours of a snap election over the weekend sent the 10-year JGB yield to fresh highs of nearly 2.2% earlier this week, while the yen approached 160 against the dollar for the first time since 2024. The government confirmed on Wednesday …
Another year of solid growth GDP growth in Malaysia picked up further in Q4 and with the economy set to hold up well, we doubt the central bank will ease monetary policy at all this year. According to the advance estimate for Q4 GDP published today, …
Pickup in consumption warrants tighter policy We got more evidence this week that the Australian consumer is in the midst of a spending spree. The ABS’ monthly household spending indicator (MHSI) continued to rise at a breakneck speed in November , having …
The PBOC has announced plans to cut interest rates on structural policy tools, and suggested broader-based policy rate cuts are on the horizon. But we doubt rate cuts will be enough to drive up loan growth. China’s central bank announced today that …
15th January 2026
A weak economic outlook, increased efficiency of new buildings and worsening affordability are all weighing on demand for industrial assets, which has fallen to a 15-year low according to RICS. That supports our view that industrial rental growth will …
Brazil’s labour market has been a key pillar of strength during the post-pandemic boom, but there are signs that conditions are now starting to cool. While this should take some pressure off wage growth, the labour market will remain an area of concern …
A slew of data released in the first couple of weeks of the year suggests that retailers had a disappointing so-called “Golden Quarter”. We suspect this is a sign of things to come and forecast that consumer spending growth will disappoint the consensus …
Portugal’s economy has benefited from a series of favourable developments in recent years, causing it to outperform most other euro-zone countries. We think this will continue over the next couple of years, bringing the government debt-to-GDP ratio down …
Headlines have been dominated this week by the nationwide protests in Iran. The US appears to have backed away from military intervention, for now, but the situation remains extremely fragile and the prospect of some form of regime change in Iran appears …
The UAE’s economy enjoyed another strong year in 2025. Rising oil output will continue to support headline GDP growth over the coming quarters. And while there are signs that that activity in the rest of the economy is starting to soften, supportive …
Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) …
The government’s ongoing efforts to shorten its debt issuance mix is likely helping to address the demand/supply imbalance in the Gilt market and easing upward pressure on longer-dated Gilt yields. Combined with our view that the Bank of England will cut …
Some grim news for fourth-quarter GDP While the decline in manufacturing sales in November was broadly as expected, the surprise slump in wholesale sales suggests that GDP growth was quite a bit weaker than expected last quarter. Manufacturing sales fell …
Euro-zone industrial production rose in November, and the outlook for certain sectors – such as defence and pharmaceuticals – is fairly bright. But overall, industry is likely to remain weak and it will probably continue to decline as a share of total …
India’s equity market ended 2025 with its worst underperformance relative to its emerging market peers in three decades. Although we expect India’s economy to remain a global outperformer in 2026, we think the equity market is set for another year of …
A temporary bump in inflation Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged up to 2.1% y/y in December, but it remains weak by EM standards and we expect it to slow over the course of this year. December’s outturn was a touch stronger than both ourselves …
There are at least three things that we think could see the US Treasury market spring back to life, although our base case is that its current calm period will continue. At the time of writing US Treasuries were rallying, with the 10-year yield, for …
Another tough year for Germany The first estimate of annual GDP for 2025 confirms that Germany’s much-vaunted fiscal “stimulus” did not get underway last year and that economic activity remained broadly stagnant. We think things should improve a bit this …
Potential policy rate cuts unlikely to prevent further credit slowdown Credit growth in China continued to slow in December, as government bond issuance decelerated. Although the PBOC is signalling that policy rate cuts are on the horizon, this is …
Vietnam’s Party Congress, beginning Monday, comes at a critical juncture. Following a period of political turbulence, To Lam looks set to be confirmed as both general secretary and state president. This will shore up stability while also consolidating …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Surprisingly strong growth to prove short lived The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.1% m/m) suggests the economy is heading into 2026 with a …
The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged as expected, but the central bank’s accompanying statement and the commentary from Governor Rhee were much more hawkish than anticipated. This reduces the chances of the central bank resuming rate cuts …
Buyer sentiment remains soft, upward pressure on rents abating The continued weakness in buyer sentiment, the further rise in the supply of homes for sale and the softening in rental demand recorded by the RICS survey in December implies that the risks to …
The Bank of Japan’s Board will revise up their GDP growth forecasts next week as downside risks from tariffs have abated. And while the government’s energy subsidies will result in lower forecasts for headline inflation, the Board will probably revise up …
While the ruling LDP/Ishin No Kai coalition will probably enhance its majority in the upcoming Lower House elections, we aren’t convinced that this will herald a further major loosening of fiscal policy. According to press reports, PM Sanae Takaichi will …
Interest rates on hold, but BoK to resume easing mid-year The Bank of Korea kept its policy rate on hold today at 2.50%. We expect the central bank to maintain this stance until at least mid-year, before eventually restarting its easing cycle. The outcome …
We doubt the recent contrasts in Japan’s financial markets (government bonds and FX down, stocks up) will persist. Our view is that the yen will regain ground against the US dollar before long and that equities there will keep pace with those elsewhere. …
14th January 2026
Overview – President Trump’s proposals to improve housing affordability are not enough to move the dial, which would require a sustained decline in mortgage rates. Unfortunately, our positive outlook for the real economy and relatively hawkish Fed view …
The ~8GW of renewable generating capacity procured at the UK government’s latest energy auction could help to lift renewables’ share in the UK’s energy mix to over 70% by 2030, and underlines the UK’s status as a leader in offshore wind power. That said, …
EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth stems from a few large economies – China, Brazil and …
Bulgaria has become the latest but also the poorest member of the single currency area following its euro adoption at the start of the year. GDP per capita should continue to converge with Western Europe in the coming years, but at a slower pace than that …
A year-end mini-surge, with a bit more to come The boost to purchasing activity from the modest reduction in borrowing costs in the latter-half of 2025 continued to gather momentum in December, with existing home sales rising to an almost three-year-high. …
Fourth-quarter consumption growth still tracking around 2% The broad-based gains in headline, core (ex-autos), and control group retail sales in November indicate that household spending remained resilient early in the holiday season, with the government …
Upside surprise to PPI won’t concern the Fed too much The delayed October and November data revealed that PPI inflation was higher than most expected toward the end of last year, but that was largely due to revisions to the data for September, which have …
A temporary pause in the easing cycle The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.00%, is likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, and we expect two further 25bp cuts over the first half of …
Far from being only a French problem, pensions will be a growing fiscal headache in all the major euro-zone countries in the coming decade as populations age. In France and Italy, this will add to the risk of renewed turbulence in bond markets, and in all …
The risks to the oil market from growing instability in Iran are much greater than in Venezuela. This is not only because Iran produces much more oil itself, but there are also a greater number of realistic flashpoints that could endanger global oil …
One year on from DeepSeek’s breakthrough, Chinese AI is still hot on the heels of US tech. Despite hardware constraints, China looks set to remain close to the frontier of AI development. And China has advantages that mean that economy-wide adoption could …
This Focus answers 10 questions about the tariff state of play, how trade flows are changing, and whether the resilience of world trade will last. Beyond our conclusion that trade will continue to grow at a decent pace in 2026, one of our key findings is …
Taiwan last year briefly flirted with imposing restrictions on its exports of semiconductors as part of an effort to assert its foreign policy interests. But there are strong reasons for officials to avoid weaponising chips, not least because it would …
Both exports and imports ended the year on a stronger note Headline export growth rose to a three-month high, with shipments also jumping on a seasonally adjusted basis. We expect this resilience to continue through 2026, although exports will provide …
We believe the RBA will join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026, whereas the analyst consensus expects rates to remain on hold for the foreseeable future. With growth accelerating when there’s little …
Indirect attacks on the Fed’s independence aren’t likely to roil the financial markets in the US, so long as inflation there remains under control. That is one take away from recent events and data. Admittedly, we do think that sustained political …
13th January 2026
The likely increase in Venezuela’s oil output in the next few years will cause some pain for Canadian producers, but it is unlikely to have a major impact on GDP growth. Pipeline capacity constraints held back the oil sector between 2017 and 2021, but the …
