Riksbank to leave policy rate on hold amid heightened uncertainty While the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and its forward guidance unchanged today, the economic data have improved significantly over the past few months and have given us greater …
29th January 2026
We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England, Fed and ECB policy in a 20-minute online Drop-In at 3pm on 5 th February. (Register here .) Concerns over wage expectations mean rates are widely expected to stay at 3.75% in February The MPC will …
Plunge in public investment limits pickup in activity GDP growth in the Philippines remained below trend in Q4, and we expect the economy to underperform consensus expectations in 2026. With growth set to remain soft and inflation low, we think the …
We continue to think that a cautious Fed will mean Treasury yields rise a little and the US dollar strengthens, despite recent developments in the latter. In the end, it was an uneventful Fed meeting from markets’ point of view. Despite sounding upbeat on …
Singapore’s central bank kept monetary policy settings unchanged today but adopted a slightly more hawkish tone. While risks to the policy outlook are now skewed modestly towards tighter policy later in the year, we think inflation will remain contained …
Shifting the asset allocation of Japan’s largest pension fund back towards domestic bonds could help stabilise the JGB market should yields start to surge again. However, it would come at a sizeable fiscal cost, particularly if the GPIF reduced its …
28th January 2026
Copom opens the door for easing Brazil’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 15.00% as expected but the communications struck a much more dovish tone, suggesting that the first interest rate cut will be delivered at the next meeting in March. We …
The change to the FOMC’s policy statement, acknowledging the recent solid pace of GDP growth and stabilisation in the unemployment rate, is another sign that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates again for at least a couple more meetings. Nonetheless, …
Waller makes a pitch for Chair position as FOMC keeps rates unchanged The change to the FOMC’s policy statement, acknowledging the recent solid pace of GDP growth and stabilisation in the unemployment rate, is further evidence that the Fed is unlikely to …
US equities had been struggling to make headway against those elsewhere in recent months and have now begun underperforming significantly, even as US indices climb to fresh highs. While this has echoes of the final stages of the dotcom bubble, we think …
The Bank of Canada’s largely-unchanged economic projections are similar to our own, although we think the slow pace of economic growth this year will help ease core price pressures sooner than policymakers expect. (See Chart 1.) On the whole, however, we …
We do not think that the SNB has intervened in FX markets in recent days despite the Swiss franc’s large appreciation. Instead, we think policymakers are likely to combat any disinflationary pressure from the exchange rate by cutting the policy rate …
US population growth is expected to slow to only 0.2% y/y this year, matching the record low. Yet the risks to the official forecasts arguably lie to the downside, with a modest fall in the population possible. Yesterday the Census Bureau released its …
Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal credibility could help to lower country risk premia, with the …
Bank’s projections largely unchanged with CUSMA renegotiation on the horizon The Bank of Canada’s largely-unchanged economic projections are similar to our own, although we think the slow pace of economic growth this year will help ease core price …
Easing cycle has a lot further to run The Bank of Ghana lowered its policy rate by 250bp to 15.50%, today and the policy statement remained dovish with the BoG keen to support to growth against the backdrop of low inflation. We remain comfortable with our …
Global commercial real estate fundraising improved last year, but the details highlight that the pick-up was mostly driven by data centers. A broader market recovery was held back by investor caution and interest rates holding at relatively high levels …
The mayhem in precious metals markets has captured the majority of headlines, but several industrial metals prices have increased by a lot too. We are sceptical that near-term fundamentals justify these rapid prices rallies, especially given the ongoing …
Our base case is that the recent bout of weakness in the US dollar will reverse. If it remains at its current level, the direct macro impact is likely to be small for most countries, especially advanced economies. But benefits will be felt in some EMs …
The slump in Indonesia’s stock market today in the wake of a threat by MSCI to downgrade the country to “frontier market” status is the latest in a long list of issues that investors are grappling with. A lot of bad news now appears to be priced in. And …
We expect the budget deficit to halve over the next three years and reach a 24-year low in 2030/31. But the risk of it overshooting our forecast over the next few years has grown. That could happen if the political pressures on Starmer/Reeves weakens …
The euro’s recent appreciation will reduce euro-zone inflation by a trivial amount, so for now the ECB is likely to do nothing to prevent it other than perhaps the mildest form of verbal intervention. Even if the euro kept rising, intervening in the FX …
RBA to hike rates by 25bp next week amid persistence in underlying inflation Both the economy and the labour market operating above capacity Cash rate will peak at 4.10% this year The ongoing persistence in underlying inflation will persuade the Reserve …
Resurgence in underlying inflation locks in RBA rate hike The sharper-than-expected rise in underlying inflation makes it all but certain that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates at its meeting next week. The 0.6% q/q rise in consumer …
As the dollar continues to drop in the wake of intervention chatter, here are four key takeaways from an extraordinary few days. First, while the US dollar’s plunge over recent days echoes last April’s post-“Liberation Day” drop, the broader market …
27th January 2026
The £250 a year cap on ground rent charges announced by the Prime Minister on Tuesday will lower the running costs for some owner-occupiers and private landlords of leasehold homes, particularly flats, but the savings will be small. As a result, the …
By raising overall occupier demand, commercial real estate should benefit from the boost to economic growth that AI will provide. But some sectors will face challenges, particularly during the transition period. Chief among them is the office sector, …
Further price acceleration ahead The solid 0.5% rise in house prices in November builds on October’s upwardly-revised 0.4% rise, and we expect further price acceleration in the months ahead as a pick-up in demand meets nagging undersupply. Prices are on …
Rates left on hold, a cut may be just around the corner The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, gave no new guidance on the timing at which monetary easing may …
Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 26) …
It may be tempting to conclude that the long-awaited India-EU trade deal announced today will only have a small economic impact. After all, key sectors such as agriculture remain off the table and the EU’s average tariff rate on Indian goods was low …
Rise in inflation shuts the door on a January rate cut The uptick in inflation in Brazil in the first half of this month, to 4.5% y/y, will probably remove any lingering expectations for an interest rate cut at tomorrow’s Copom meeting. But under the …
We expect Korea to record another year of subdued growth in 2026, as relatively strong exports are likely to be offset by soft domestic demand. Trump’s latest threat to impose 25% tariffs poses a downside risk to the outlook, although it remains unclear …
Total returns of 1.1% q/q in Q4 2025 were more-or-less unchanged from the previous quarter and helped returns for 2025 rise to just under 5%. That highlights the modest recovery in commercial real estate, with offices and industrial both underperforming …
26th January 2026
Our view is that most fundamental factors still point to a stronger dollar in 2026. But renewed uncertainty around the Trump administration’s approach to US economic and foreign policy threatens to undermine the prospect of a dollar rebound, at least in …
Costa Rica’s ruling party looks set to hold onto power at the general election on 1 st February. A more fragmented legislature – as seems likely – may make it harder to pass reforms, including measures to tackle rising crime and improve the public debt …
Our View: Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand strengthens and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened). Meanwhile, Russia’s economy will stagnate amid low oil prices as well as war …
Signs of health beneath Boeing-led surge A jump in Boeing orders was the main driver of higher durable goods orders in November, although core (ex. transport) orders still performed decently. Most importantly, another rise in underlying capital goods …
Reports that the Saudi government will significantly scale back its ambitions for Neom are not a surprise as low oil prices bite. Capital expenditure always bears the brunt of Saudi fiscal consolidation plans. The move will weigh on near-term growth, but …
Overview – Despite the recent increase in the supply of homes on the market, we think the combination of looser lending standards, further falls in mortgage rates and decent wage growth will allow housing transactions to climb above their pre-pandemic …
Is the widow-maker out of business? For years, investor bets that yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) would rise from rock-bottom levels were routinely crushed by the Bank of Japan’s determination to keep rates down. The fortunes lost shorting …
Ifo dampens expectations of German recovery The weaker-than-expected German Ifo in January pours some cold water on expectations that the German economy might be finally turning the corner. The fiscal stimulus should still cause growth to pick up a bit …
It looks set to be a fairly quiet Fed meeting this week as far as markets are concerned, and perhaps even a quiet year on the policy front despite the background noise. But there are plenty of other potential shocks waiting in the wings, including the …
Our China Activity Proxy shows that growth slowed at the end of 2025, with the economy expanding at a rate almost 2%-pts below what official figures suggest. And while official figures indicate that an end of year acceleration in services activity helped …
23rd January 2026
China-Africa loans fall but economic ties still deep New data this week showed Chinese lending to Africa fell again in 2024. But while lending is slowing, trade is not. And China’s widening current account surplus needs to be recycled somewhere. With the …
While we still expect that GDP will end the year on a softer note, the latest retail sales data suggest the economy performed a bit better than we thought a week ago, and the latest business surveys hint at better times ahead. This week we received the …
While today’s BoJ meeting was fairly uneventful, with no big impact on Japanese financial markets besides some significant volatility in the yen during Governor Ueda’s press conference, that may not remain the case in the run-up to and after next month’s …
Stable yields over 2025 led to a gradual slowdown in capital value growth to 1.4% y/y by the end of the year. And with yields set to see little movement over the next few years, we expect total returns of just over 7% p.a. over 2026-29. … UK Commercial …
