Odds shifting in favour of another 50bp cut The fall in core inflation in Mexico in the first half of February combined with weak economic activity, means that Banxico is likely to press ahead with another 50bp cut at its meeting next month. The outturn …
24th February 2025
Following yesterday’s federal election in Germany, this Update answers questions raised by clients in our on-line briefing (which can be viewed here ). What are the key takeaways from the election itself? The CDU’s leader, Friedrich Merz will be the next …
Ernest Hemingway’s line about bankruptcy happening “gradually, then suddenly” can apply to the geopolitical mood too. The head-spinning recent turn of events around Trump and Putin, the war in Ukraine and the future of European security has seen …
Polish economy starts 2025 on the front foot The stronger-than-expected activity data out of Poland for January suggest the economy has carried over some of the positive momentum from the end of last year. Alongside the recent strength of inflation, this …
Merz next chancellor but coalition composition unclear There was never any doubt that the centre right CDU would come out on top of the German federal election and that its leader Friedrich Merz would become the next German Chancellor . The first exit …
23rd February 2025
Despite a continued steady stream of headlines out of the Trump administration, currency markets have remained remarkably calm this week. The dollar has stabilised today but remains around its lowest level in two months. That probably reflects a judgement …
21st February 2025
Underlying inflation picks up Headline inflation rose to 1.9% in January, from 1.8%, despite the partial GST/HST holiday that began in mid-December. (See here .) Excluding taxes, headline inflation climbed to 2.5%, providing a taste of what is to come now …
Pills, chips and automobiles After last week’s focus on reciprocal tariffs, President Trump shifted his attention this week to product-specific tariffs targeting motor vehicles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, he …
Europe scrambles amid warming US-Russia ties The plans announced by the US and Russia to improve relations and seek an end to the war in Ukraine have sent shockwaves across Europe and caught many off guard. The possibility that a peace deal is negotiated …
Today’s inflation and PMI data in Japan bolster our view that the 10-year JGB yield will continue to rise. We are sticking to our forecast that it will end 2025 at 1.75%, as the BoJ tightens policy by more than is discounted in the money market. In …
SA Budget: GNU coalition under strain South Africa is still reeling from this week’s surprise last minute Budget postponement and concerns about divisions within the GNU are likely to rise. We set out our initial thoughts to the delay in a Rapid Response …
Colombia: lacklustre investment outlook GDP data from Colombia this week confirmed that 2024 was another very weak year for the economy. Growth came in at just 1.7% last year, far below the pre-pandemic average of 3+%. The one bright spot in the Q4 data …
Weak start to 2025 a sign of things to come The fall in existing home sales in January reflects weak deal-making at the end of last year due to the surge in mortgage rates. Given that borrowing costs have stayed above 7% since then, we expect this …
Euro-zone exports have performed poorly for several years and the outlook is poor even if the EU does not get into a trade war with the US. We suspect that US tariffs will be only a small additional drag, but there is a lot of uncertainty and the hit …
Xi symposium cements shift toward private sector President Xi’s meeting with China’s top tech leaders on Monday and Alibaba’s strong earnings report yesterday have added fuel to market optimism around China’s tech sector. Since DeepSeek’s AI model …
It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed? Group Chief Economist Neil …
GST holiday temporarily boosts sales The jump in retail sales in December was partly due to the GST holiday, but also reflected strong gains in sectors that were unaffected by tax changes. Nonetheless, with sales dropping back in January, this release …
OPEC+ confusion highlights risks of another delay Another week, another chapter in the book of the ongoing drama around when and whether OPEC+ will start to unwind its voluntary output cuts. Reports early this week suggested that the group was considering …
Another week, another tariff threat President Trump announced earlier this week that he plans to impose tariffs on imports of vehicles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips on the 2 nd of April, initially at 25% but potentially “very substantially …
The news on inflation this week was worrying, raising the risk that CPI inflation will remain higher for longer and interest rates will be cut more slowly than we expect and/or not as far. (See here .) Data released this week revealed that wage growth was …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs point to businesses cutting employment to cope with higher taxes. The composite activity PMI was unchanged in February, which is consistent with the economy moving sideways …
Singapore’s budget focused on election Singapore’s budget on Wednesday included a number of measures designed to boost support for the government ahead of the general election that must be held by November. They included spending vouchers worth S$800 …
Economy unlikely to have picked up in Q1 February’s Flash Composite PMI provides more evidence that, after expanding by only 0.1% in Q4, the euro-zone economy remains all but stagnant in Q1. The euro-zone Composite PMI was unchanged in February at 50.2, a …
Weaker rupee is not a big macro threat Under new leadership, the Reserve Bank appears to have taken a more flexible approach to exchange rate management. Amid broad dollar strength, that has meant that the rupee has fallen by more in the past two …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Bad news continues for the Chancellor While January’s disappointing public finances figures may not be as bad as they first appear, they continue the run of bad news for the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Supermarkets win, restaurants lose The leap in retail sales volumes in January shows that the retail sector shot out of the blocks at the start of the year. But some of that …
Starts align for further rate hikes A recent Reuters survey showed that most economists expect just one more 25bp rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. Even so, the financial markets are starting to come around to our view that the Bank will lift …
Risks are tilting towards less easing As most had expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia began its easing cycle with a 25bp cut this Tuesday. However, in her post-meeting press conference Governor Bullock took pains to rein in expectations for further …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs point to further rate hikes The further rebound in the composite PMI in February coupled with the persistent strength in manufacturing output prices suggests that the Bank …
Softer inflation ahead The acceleration in headline inflation and strength in underlying inflation in January should add to the Bank of Japan’s confidence that it can continue its tightening cycle over the coming quarters. In January, headline inflation …
20th February 2025
CBE stands pat, but easing around the corner The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left its overnight deposit rate unchanged at 27.25% today but, with inflation set to slow sharply over the next couple of months, we think policymakers will start the monetary …
With Treasury yields rising in Q4 and property cap rates falling for the first time since mid-2022, our property valuation scores declined across the board. This supports our view that the recovery in 2025 will be weak. There remains a gap between …
Talks between the US and Russia have raised expectation about an end to the war in Ukraine, but we are not yet factoring a peace agreement into our forecasts. Even if a deal is reached, the macroeconomic implications would crucially depend on the features …
Egypt’s gas recovery still has a long way to go Egypt’s gas sector appears to be heading towards a resumption of activity that should alleviate domestic shortages and strains in the balance of payments. Last year, Egypt’s economy was blighted by domestic …
Hotels have seen a considerable turnaround in the past five years given the near-existential threat that the pandemic posed to the sector. Having bottomed last year, we expect values will grow in the coming years, with a pick-up in consumer spending …
EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of 2024 but faces headwinds this year from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue but, outside Asia, high inflation means …
Rates on hold, CBN to turn to easing soon The Central Bank of Nigeria confirmed today that its tightening cycle was at an end by leaving the policy rate at 27.50% today, and we think its attention will quickly turn to rate cuts, probably beginning in May …
The latest data suggest that, outside China, the world economy lost a bit of momentum heading into 2025. Around the turn of the year, manufacturing output kept treading water, retail sales weakened in advanced economies, and business survey indicators …
Germany’s next government looks set to cut taxes and, if the parliamentary maths allow, reform the constitutional fiscal rule. It is also likely to be firmer in its support for Ukraine even as support from the US wanes and to advocate an increase in EU …
Whilst COMEX benchmark copper prices will be heavily influenced by President Trump’s plans for tariffs in the near term, the bigger picture is that weak demand growth and robust refined copper supply will weigh on global benchmark prices over the next few …
While our bullish year-end forecast of 7,000 for the S&P 500 assumes the index’s absolute valuation will approach its dotcom-era peak, that forecast is comparatively conservative based on relative valuation. If the equity risk premium reached its level in …
We still think the PBOC will allow the renminbi to depreciate against the US dollar, perhaps quite significantly, by the end of the year. We suspect there are a few reasons that China’s central bank declined to cut its benchmark Loan Prime Rates today …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Hot jobs report will keep the RBA vigilant The tight labour market reinforces our view that the RBA will deliver a shallow easing cycle. We expect the Bank to hand down only two …
Fed in no hurry to resume cutting rates The minutes of the Fed’s late-January policy meeting underline that, having cut rates by a cumulative 100bp, officials are in no hurry to resume loosening monetary policy, even though most still thought the current …
19th February 2025
It may seem odd that tech firms are likely to make further layoffs in 2025, while at the same time being one of the leading sectors for hiring intentions. But this broadly reflects cutbacks in less profitable areas to free up capital to invest in …
We expect Korea’s economy to grow by just 1.0% this year, with the political crisis and the downturn in the property sector set to weigh heavily on demand. Our forecast is well below both the consensus expectation and our estimate of trend growth. We …
The Bank of Canada has downplayed the recent stronger monthly increases in its preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures, but we are not convinced by the Bank’s claim that these measures are overstating underlying inflation pressures. While the GST …
