Asset Allocation Update How 2022 altered the long-run outlook for US equities Although valuation premia in certain parts of the US stock market shrank significantly last year, we think there is still some room for this to continue in the coming decade and weigh on their... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Resilient labour market may force Bank to do more The resilience of the labour market is a risk to our view that the Bank of Canada will pause its tightening cycle after a final 25 bp hike this month, even as the slump in natural gas prices raises... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key US Housing Market Calls for 2023 While we expect mortgage rates will fall to 5.75% by end-2023, affordability will remain stretched. Alongside a weakening economy and falling house prices that will weigh on housing market activity... 6th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity weakening, despite labour market resilience The data this week suggested that the weak global backdrop is being compounded by a deterioration in domestic activity, although the labour market still appears to be in good health. Drop-Ins – The... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK’s business investment position will get even worse UK investment is already languishing well below that of its G7 counterparts and we suspect its investment and productivity position will worsen relative to its peers by the end of 2024. This raises... 6th January 2023 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The solid 223,000 gain in non-farm payrolls and drop-back in unemployment to a 50-year low in December will, at face value, do little to ease the Fed’s concerns about resilient core services inflation... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The surge in employment in December and renewed fall in the unemployment rate suggest that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again later this month, although the fall in wage growth means... 6th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Cooling wholesale gas price to aid the economy The recent plunge in wholesale gas prices means that utility prices for households may fall below the government’s price freeze in July. As a result, CPI inflation will be around 0.3 percentage points... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Will the December CPI report shift the disinflation/policy debate? 1673535600 After November’s positive surprise, will December’s CPI report provide more evidence that US inflationary pressures are easing – and what would that mean for the Fed’s policy calculus?
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The headline CIPS construction index fell below 50 in December, indicating a contraction in activity, as the recession hit demand and developers’ concerns about capital values increased. With both... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Manufacturing slumping, but tourism set to rebound Industrial production probably recorded the largest fall since the slump at the start of the pandemic last quarter. Q4 GDP will nonetheless rebound, helped by a strong recovery in services activity... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) The further large fall in house prices recorded by Halifax in December suggests that the house price correction is further advanced than we previously thought. Indeed, while the Nationwide figures... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China reopening, price pressures moderating The dismantling of China’s Zero-Covid regime will encourage more Chinese tourists and students to come to Australia and New Zealand. That could eventually boost Australia’s GDP by nearly 1%-pt, though... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
