Capital Daily Equity rally amid bond volatility seems complacent The recent resilience in US equities is at odds with the surge in volatility in Treasuries. While the macro outlook is especially uncertain at present, we find it hard to envisage a scenario in which... 22nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Crisis easing, but economic damage yet to be felt Recent data suggest the economy’s strong start to the year was mostly sustained in February, with consumption growth set to accelerate in the first quarter, payroll employment growth robust and... 22nd March 2023 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equities stuck between a rock and a hard place Although recent strains in the banking sector mean that the economic outlook is especially uncertain, in our view equities are unlikely to perform particularly well, regardless of how things play out. 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How much of a risk does UK CRE debt pose? The UK commercial real estate (CRE) debt market seems to be in a better position than the US, where troubled regional banks were the main providers of finance. That said, credit conditions are also... 22nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus The impact of the end of Help to Buy on home ownership The Help to Buy: Equity Loan scheme was designed to counter an alarming drop in housebuilding and home ownership among young adults. It succeeded to some extent on both fronts, so the loss of the... 22nd March 2023 · 21 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The reacceleration in CPI inflation in February may be enough to tilt the Bank of England towards raising interest rates from 4.00% to 4.25% tomorrow despite the recent turmoil in the global banking... 22nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Even if the worst is over for banks, the outlook remains bleak A risk-on mood has prevailed today amid easing concerns over the US banking system. That seems to reflect a view that intervention, perhaps including an extension of FDIC insurance to deposits above... 21st March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) Existing home sales rebounded in February as buyers took advantage of falling mortgage rates. Weak mortgage applications data point to sales dropping back again in March, but with turmoil in the... 21st March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) Despite February’s worse-than-expected public finances figures, we still think the Chancellor may have more headroom to cut taxes/raise spending later this year. But the big risk is that a further... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Quantifying the risks from banks’ foreign claims With bond yields now dropping back again, the drag from unrealised losses on banks’ capital ratios should start to reverse. However, a sharp increase in losses on banks’ foreign loan portfolio has yet... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the Swiss shotgun wedding Financial markets have greeted the second consecutive weekend bank rescue/resolution – this time in Switzerland – with cautious optimism. But there is still an enormous amount of uncertainty about... 20th March 2023 · 6 mins read
