Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Tightening cycles nearing their end Both the RBA and the RBNZ have more work to do to rein in the recent surge in inflation. That aggressive monetary tightening is starting to take its toll on economic activity and we expect GDP growth... 20th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Banking sector turmoil – What next after Credit Suisse? 1679320800 Markets remain in a febrile state despite the weekend deal for UBS to buy Credit Suisse and a joint central bank statement pledge to beef up dollar liquidity support. What will it take to rest
Capital Daily Falls in yields and equities may have further to run Despite a better day for financial markets yesterday, confidence among investors still seems fragile. Although we do not expect markets to remain quite so choppy, we think some of the key trends of... 17th March 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Banking turmoil not (yet) enough to stop Fed hike Although the banking crisis appears to be far from over and new problems could yet emerge over the coming days, we still expect the Fed to push ahead with a 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting next... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jan.) January was an especially strong month for payrolls data, and this translated into positive employment growth across all 30 of the biggest metros. However, this was not the case for office-based jobs... 17th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The February industrial production data were marginally stronger than we had expected, with manufacturing output rising by a further 0.1% m/m following the 1.3% surge in January. But with the regional... 17th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Banking situation appears to be stabilising, but risks remain Even if policymakers are successful at putting a firewall around the recent problems in the global banking system, some damage to the UK economy may already have been done. And while we think... 17th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Focus Just how big a problem are bonds for banks and the economy? US banks’ problems may have only just begun, but we doubt a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 is on the cards. 17th March 2023 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Credit growth slowing even before banking strains Even before SVB’s collapse prompted a reassessment of the health of the global banking system, bank credit conditions were already tightening in response to higher interest rates. We have written many... 17th March 2023 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will shrug off market jitters Amid signs of trouble in the global banking system, markets believe that the RBA is done tightening and that rate cuts will be on the cards soon. However, with domestic demand showing few signs of... 17th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Less short-term pressure on Yield Curve Control The case for abandoning Yield Curve Control (YCC) has weakened further. The recent troubles at US regional banks and Credit Suisse should further reduce already easing pressure on the 10-year JGB... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Banking stress raises another dilemma for central banks We are resending this Stress Monitor to include clients of our Global Economics Service. The ghosts of 2008 have made a sudden reappearance. Many metrics of core market functioning have worsened... 16th March 2023 · 9 mins read
