Canada Economics Weekly Easing labour shortages support Bank’s pause Governor Tiff Macklem stressed on Wednesday that the pause in the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle is conditional on looser conditions in the labour market and a fall in inflation expectations. The... 27th January 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls to ease in 2023 Yields have continued to surprise on the upside, with the all-property equivalent yield rising by 106bps in the three months to December. That matches the worst months of the GFC, and even though... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation pressures easing, but too soon to sound the all clear The data this week provided further signs that goods pipeline pressures are easing. More importantly, we’re starting to see the first concrete signs of an easing in services pipeline pressures. But... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Funding tussle may scupper higher spending on babies PM Kishida’s plan to lift spending on childcare would take the total outlay to the highest in the OECD. However, this likely won’t have much of an impact on the stubborn decline in fertility. After... 27th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Tokyo inflation rose to 4.4% in January as fresh food and services inflation rose. But with the boost from the weaker yen fading and lower commodity prices due to feedthrough, inflation should fall... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) The small rise in new home sales in December confirmed that the new build sector is holding up better than the wider market. This likely reflects builders offering generous incentives to attract... 26th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of UK equities may fade Although we think there is still a decent case for UK equities to continue outperforming those in the US over the next few years, we don’t expect the UK’s stock market to perform significantly better... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4) The latest RICS Survey conveyed a further decline in confidence following a turning point in the previous quarter. Comments from surveyors point to high interest rates as the main concern, and we... 26th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Sharper slowdown in jobs growth coming We expect a more modest 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January. The annual benchmark revisions may also show a sharper slowdown in employment growth over the second half of last year than... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) & Durable Goods (Dec.) The 2.9% annualised rise in fourth-quarter GDP was a little stronger than we had expected, but the mix of growth was discouraging, and the monthly data suggest the economy lost momentum as the fourth... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Activity to slump as prices adjust to higher rates 2023 will be the most difficult year for the housing market since 2008. Mortgage rates remain very high by the standards of recent years and can’t drop materially until the Bank of England shifts from... 26th January 2023 · 25 mins read
Global Markets Focus The implications of waning appetite for US Treasuries We forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to decline between now and the end of the year, as inflation eases further and the Fed transitions to monetary loosening. A key risk to this projection, in our... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
BoE Watch Bank not yet willing to call the peak Another 50 basis points (bps) rise in interest rates, from 3.50% to 4.00%, at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday 2 nd February wouldn’t surprise the markets. But our view that... 26th January 2023 · 8 mins read
