Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates will end in early-2024 Even though the sustainability of above-target inflation is still far from assured, the Bank of Japan seems to be keen on finally ending negative rates. Accordingly, we now expect a 20bp hike in the... 18th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly No sign of immigration slowdown as opinion shifts A recent poll suggests that Canadians are growing sceptical of the government’s high immigration targets. Whether policy shifts or not, it is inevitable that net immigration will eventually slow from... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shutdowns and strikes could disrupt economy With no agreement on a new contract with the big three automakers, the United Auto Workers union has started limited strike action. The impact on overall GDP should be limited but, if production... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment and single-family REIT divergence to persist The recent outperformance of single-family REITs versus apartment REITs appears to be down to differences in the capital value outlook for the sectors, rather than any major difference in rental... 15th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Employment starting to buckle We’ve been encouraged by the signs that employment is weakening and the labour market is loosening a bit more markedly. What’s more, forward-looking indicators point to employment growth deteriorating... 15th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian labour market will cool further Data published by Australia's Fair Work Commission revealed that pay hikes under enterprise bargaining agreements (EBAs) soared to a new high in the first fortnight of August. However, the share of... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike policy rate in January Following hawkish comments by BoJ Governor Ueda, we now expect the Bank to lift its policy rate for the first time in sixteen years in January. The Bank could call time on Yield Curve Control at the... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Plunging food inflation to offset higher oil prices CPI food inflation has remained elevated in recent months but, with wholesale price growth easing rapidly, we are confident it will soon fall sharply. That will help to offset the impact of higher oil... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales values in August was mostly due to price-related strength in gasoline sales, with the muted 0.1% rise in underlying control group sales suggesting that consumption... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, there are growing signs that many major economies are losing momentum. We expect most advanced economies to... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
BoE Watch One last hike We think that a 25 basis point (bps) rise in interest rates, from 5.25% to 5.50%, at the Bank of England’s policy meeting on Thursday 21st September will be the last hike in this cycle and that sticky... 14th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 23) Although job creation rose at a breakneck pace last month, it was matched by an equally forceful expansion of the labour force. And with signs of spare capacity in the labour market starting to... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
