US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 0.8% m/m fall in retail sales in January might partly reflect the unwinding of a previous weather-related distortion, but should temper recent suggestions of an economic resurgence. We continue to... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Inflation will fall into target band this year Non-labour input costs are now moderating which should soon result in a more rapid slowdown in consumer price inflation than most are anticipating. 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Dec. & Q4 2023) The news that the UK slipped into technical recession in 2023, will be a blow for the Prime Minister on a day when he faces the prospect of losing two by-elections. But this recession is as mild as... 15th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2024) 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Mind the Gap: Markets should focus on PCE not CPI The strong reaction to the January CPI data demonstrates that markets still don’t fully comprehend that the Fed is focused on the alternative PCE measure of inflation. While core CPI inflation was... 14th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will continue to watch, worry, and wait With activity and inflation both softer than it had expected a few months ago, the RBNZ will likely stay put at its meeting at the end of the month. However, with a still-tight labour market fuelling... 14th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024) By staying at 4.0% in January rather than rising as widely expected (BoE 4.1%, CE 4.1%, consensus 4.2%), January’s UK CPI inflation figures are better than expected and do not mimic yesterday’s... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus What does the election mean for the UK economy? The next general election won’t be as pivotal for the economy or the markets as the elections in 2017 and 2019. Moreover, whoever wins will be constrained by interest rates having risen relative to... 13th February 2024 · 31 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpectedly-strong 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI prices in January will feed the “last mile is the hardest” narrative – with core CPI inflation unchanged at 3.9% – but, other than a very... 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Dec. 2023) While wage growth fell further in December, evidence that the labour market may not be loosening much suggests wage growth may not fall as fast as we expect. 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Read my lips: No new tax cuts Speculation will inevitably build that a Donald Trump victory in this year’s presidential election would be followed, once again, by large-scale tax cuts. With the Federal budget outlook in a far... 12th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (January) There was a surprisingly sharp increase in the amount of outstanding commercial real estate (CRE) debt held by commercial banks in January, which rose by $10.7bn, the largest monthly increase since... 12th February 2024 · 2 mins read
