Japan Economics Update Labour market should tighten again before long The job-to-applicant ratio has usually signalled earlier than the Tankan that the labour market has taken a turn for the worse. But despite the recent fall in the number of jobs relative to applicants... 16th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Consumers will pull back as financial strains build There are growing indications that household finances are coming under pressure as mortgagors struggle with rising debt-servicing costs. Although households benefit from substantial liquidity buffers... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly From bust to boom and back again for housing The fall in house prices in September shows just how quickly conditions in the housing market have shifted and the plunge in the sales-to-new listing ratio points to more weakness to come. That is... 13th October 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Case for final Fed hike continues to weaken There appears to be growing support at the Fed for the idea that the recent sell-off in long-term Treasuries reduces the need for further policy rate hikes, but the more persuasive reason for the Fed... 13th October 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Upside inflation risks dominate, Labour’s investment plans The upside risks to oil and gas prices triggered by the conflict between Hamas and Israel will add to the Bank of England’s concerns about whether it has done enough to reduce inflation to the 2%... 13th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) The latest activity and survey data have provided even more evidence that the resilience in activity in advanced economies over the first half of 2023 is now fading. High interest rates are clearly... 13th October 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Above-trend growth won’t be sustained The savings rate bounced back in Q2 as consumption fell and remains above its pre-pandemic average, leaving scope for a renewed rise in spending over the coming quarters. And with inflation set to... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand elections won’t usher in major changes Opinion polls in the run up to tomorrow’s general election in New Zealand suggest that the centre-right National party is in pole position to wrest power from the incumbent, centre-left Labour party... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update BoE Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2023) - Demand and supply of credit contracts Surging interest rates caused mortgage demand to slump in Q3 at the same time as rising defaults led lenders to tighten mortgage credit conditions. Similarly, it became more difficult to secure... 12th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.3% m/m rise in core consumer prices in September suggests, at face value, that the downward trend in core inflation may be easing. But that’s largely because of a stronger gain in shelter prices... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Households avoid mortgages as higher rates bite harder Higher interest rates weighed sharply on households’ demand for mortgages in Q3 and banks expect demand for mortgages to fall further in Q4. This is a clear sign that higher interest rates are working... 12th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Euro-zone equities may continue to underperform the US We think euro-zone equities’ recent run of underperformance relative to those in the US will extend over the next couple of years, as bond yields fall back and enthusiasm around “AI” continues to grow... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Monthly GDP (Aug. 2023) The 0.2% m/m rise in real GDP in August followed July’s 0.6% m/m contraction and will raise hopes that the economy has escaped a recession this year. But the timelier measures of activity point to a... 12th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The impact of net migration on Australia’s economy Most of the recent surge in net migration has been driven by the increased arrival of foreign students, who generally spend less, work fewer hours and demand less housing than the average Australian... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
