Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE Oct/Nov decisions – On hold but then what? 1698937200 Senior economists from across our euro-zone, US and UK services held an online briefing on the October/November meetings of the Fed, ECB and Bank of England and the latest messaging from their poli
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Sep. 2023) Existing home sales fell to their lowest level since October 2010 in September as the increase in mortgage rates to a fresh 23-year high caused buyers and sellers to withdraw from the market. A... 19th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Oct. 23) After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher r* - bigger fiscal challenge, headwind for real asset prices As our new higher estimate of the real neutral interest rate, or r*, for 2030 appears to be above the assumption priced into the financial markets, we think that in the 2030s 10-year gilt yields will... 19th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2023) The September data suggest that the labour market could take longer to cool than the RBA currently expects. Accordingly, we still expect the Bank to hike by 25bp at its November meeting. 19th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on hold, may push back QT end date The business surveys point to rising recession risks and core inflation pressures were muted in September, suggesting that there is little chance of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates next week... 18th October 2023 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook West coast markets set to feel the greatest pain We expect demand to be weakest in the six major markets, but new supply is also set to be low in those markets. Elsewhere, we think southern metros will continue to see stronger absorption, though... 18th October 2023 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Sep. 2023) Single-family starts edged higher in September to 963,000 annualised from 933,000 in August and building permits also rose to a 15-month high. However, we don’t think this means single-family... 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s QT plans may not survive rate cuts next year The ongoing outflow of funds from the Fed’s reverse repo facility has completely offset the downward pressure on bank reserves from quantitative tightening (QT), suggesting that the Fed could continue... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Output rapidly falling below potential The weakness of GDP growth in the second and third quarters means that the Bank of Canada is likely to make a marked re-assessment of its output gap estimates in its October Monetary Policy Report... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Wage pressures have peaked, but may ease only gradually There is a growing body of evidence that suggests wage pressures are past their peak, but it’s not clear how quickly wage growth will slow. The gradual loosening in the labour market and the... 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2023) The failure of CPI inflation to fall in September from August’s rate of 6.7% will be a bit of a disappointment to most. But at 6.7% it is still below the 6.9% rate the Bank of England projected back... 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australia Q3 Inflation review – Is the RBA done hiking interest rates? 1698202800 Economists from our ANZ and Markets teams held an online briefing following the release of Australian Q3 inflation data.
Capital Daily Cyclically higher for shorter; structurally higher for longer We think equilibrium real policy rates in advanced economies will continue to rise over the next decade or so. That has profound implications for government bond yields and risky asset valuations. 17th October 2023 · 5 mins read
