Bank of Japan Watch Bank will lift policy rate to 0.1% in March The Bank of Japan may revise up its medium-term inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting but will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged. We expect the Bank to lift its policy rate to 0.1... 16th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Surveys show inflation expectations are still too high The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys continue to flash warning signs about the outlook for the economy and labour market. The normalisation of inflation expectations remains... 15th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: ECB, BoE, Fed meetings – Reading the tea leaves for rate cut hints 1706799600 We don’t expect the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank or Bank of England to cut rates in their first meetings of 2024, but they may drop hints about when monetary easing could start.
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australia Q4 CPI and the case for an early RBA cut 1706670000 There’s a popular view that the RBA won’t start cutting interest rates until later in the second half of this year.
Event Drop-In: What to expect from financial markets in 2024 1706108400 Will US equities continue to lead the pack in 2024? How will monetary policymaking affect the level of yields? What will this mean for FX markets?
Event US Housing Drop-In: What do falling mortgage rates mean for the market in 2024? 1706022000 US house prices saw strong gains in 2023, defying widespread expectations for them to fall as surging mortgage rates crimped supply.
UK Economics Update Resilience in business investment won't last We doubt the recent resilience of business investment in the face of higher interest rates will last. We think a drop back in business investment will contribute to the economy continuing to stagnate... 15th January 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Scotland & N.I. to outperform, while the South recovers There was a wide disparity in house price growth across regions in 2023 and little reason to think that this year will be any different. Following the recent decline in mortgage rates, we suspect the... 15th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Services inflation will moderate again While most of the recent pick-up in services inflation has been driven by just a handful of components, there’s been an upward shift in the distribution of price changes across the CPI basket. However... 15th January 2024 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Waiting for Trans Mountain The latest Trans Mountain regulatory hearing will determine whether the pipeline expansion is once again delayed. That would weigh further on the outlook for exports, with external demand already very... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump faces first test in Iowa Donald Trump is still the prohibitive favourite to win the Republican presidential nomination. But the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the primary season this coming Monday, should provide insight into... 12th January 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK to win the race to get inflation below 2% Even though the next two CPI inflation releases may fuel the narrative that the downward trend in inflation is stalling, we think that inflation in the UK will fall below the 2.0% target in April... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key US housing market calls for 2024 We doubt that the modest fall in mortgage rates we anticipate this year will bring a great deal more stock onto the market. Because of that, the supply of existing homes will remain very tight, so we... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2023) The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.2%) increases the chances that the economy escaped a recession in 2023. And with rates for new mortgages now falling and lower... 12th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Window for policy normalisation not closing just yet While the economic data released this week suggest that the case for tighter policy is diminishing, inflation is set to rebound and wage growth will strengthen again before long. Accordingly, we still... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
