US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Sep. 2023) Rising mortgage rates caused mortgage applications for home purchase to slip to a fresh 28-year low in September. With mortgage rates edging above 7.5% in the last week of the month as Treasury yields... 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) The drop in retail sales in August and weakness in the final PMIs for September are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy will fall into recession in the second half of 2023. 4th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Surveys signal a slide in the economy While some measures of optimism have been improving, the majority of the survey evidence suggests the economy is weakening and the chances of the mild recession we have been forecasting have increased... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s next move will be down With its assessment of the balance of risks broadly unchanged, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold at its meeting today. Although the Bank will likely retain its tightening bias, we... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update No support from job growth for Chicago and NYC offices Office-based jobs are on course to underperform total jobs this year for the first time since 2009 and there is a growing risk this could be repeated in 2024, though that is not yet our central... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data still point to easing wage growth Although the job openings rate rebounded sharply in August, we suspect that was more noise than a signal that the labour market is enjoying a resurgence. The rest of the JOLTS report presented a more... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Rapid Response What to make of the yen intervention Whether or not Japan's Ministry of Finance confirms that it intervened in the foreign exchange market today, the direction the currency moves over the coming months will be determined primarily by... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Interest rates haven’t reached their peak yet While new RBA Governor Michelle Bullock didn’t spring any surprises at her first interest rate decision today, we think that the Bank will hike interest rates to a peak of 4.35% at its next meeting in... 3rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Oct. 2023) 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update The impact of tighter policy on financial stability By putting upward pressure on JGB yields and the yen, tighter monetary policy could lead to falls in the value of bonds and overseas assets held by Japanese investors. Insurance companies and pension... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Lower core goods inflation in the pipeline September’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity stagnated at the end of Q3, and forward-looking indicators point to further weakness ahead. The recent rise in oil prices seemed... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Stakes are higher than normal for 2024 election The stakes could not be higher for this year’s presidential election – with the expected head-to-head rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump offering starkly contrasting polices on trade, the... 2nd October 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Homeownership increasingly unattainable Buying a first home has become increasingly difficult over the past 30 years. A high income is still essential, but other circumstances such as whether the individual is buying as part of a joint... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (October 2023) The valuations of “risky” assets have only been undermined a little by the big rise in the yields of “safe” assets in recent months. We think that the valuations of risky assets may fall a bit more in... 2nd October 2023 · 1 min read
