FX Markets Outlook Dollar’s “stronger for longer” rally may run out of road The US dollar’s record run of 10 consecutive weekly gains has brought it to its strongest level since last December, and prompted renewed talk of FX intervention in Asia. We think that market... 28th September 2023 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Update Downturn in global trade set to deepen further Global goods trade fell at its fastest pace since the pandemic in July and the timelier trade and survey data point to further declines in August and September. What’s more, given that we still expect... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update The impact of yet another government shutdown The direct hit to the economy from even an extended government shutdown beginning next week would be modest. But it could also result in delays to key data releases, including the September employment... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) We suspect the pound will fall from $1.22 now to $1.20 by the end of this year. That’s not due to lower interest rate expectations in the UK compared to the US or the euro-zone, as we think the UK... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Jobs growth continues on downward trend We forecast a 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September as employment growth continues to trend lower, but a government shutdown may disrupt the release of the data on Friday 6th October. 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Spike in housing starts belies weak construction outlook As we anticipated, housing starts in England spiked to their highest level on record in Q2 as builders began work early to avoid having to conform with the Future Homes Standard. More timely monthly... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Aug.) Retail sales lost some momentum in August. However, with sales volumes still running above their pre-pandemic trend, that shouldn’t stop the RBA for hiking its cash rate by another 25bp. 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt long-dated USTs will keep underperforming 10Y Treasuries have underperformed 2Y Treasuries over recent months, bucking the usual pattern after the final Fed hike (if, as we think, the final hike was in July). But we think the stage is now set... 27th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 23) Strong immigration and the resilience of the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada keeping further rate hikes on the table, we still judge... 27th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Aug.) Total employment growth slowed slightly in August to 0.4% 3m/3m across the 30 metros we cover, once seasonally-adjusted. But office jobs in western cities have continued to decline as layoffs in the... 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain... 27th September 2023 · 31 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike again, rate cuts only in Q2 2024 Stronger-than-expected GDP and inflation data should cement the case for the RBA to deliver a final 25bp rate hike at its meeting next week. Given the shifting balance of risks, we think the Bank will... 27th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug. 23) With Australia’s disinflationary process stalling, there’s a growing risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia will resume rate hikes in Q4. 27th September 2023 · 4 mins read
