US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Aug.) The 8.7% m/m drop in New Home Sales in August was the largest monthly decline since September 2022 and suggests that the renewed rise in mortgage rates has caused home purchase demand to decline... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul.) The sixth consecutive rise in house prices in July showed that very tight supply is causing home prices to continue to rise despite sales volumes remaining weak, and suggests a second dip in house... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Rising corporate bankruptcies another warning sign Rising bankruptcy filings by large corporations are another reason to doubt that the economy will continue to grow at close to its potential rate, as the Federal Reserve now seems to believe. 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy buckling under weight of high interest rates We expect another few quarters of near-zero GDP growth to lead to an annual gain of just 0.7% next year. Even with higher oil prices, the weakness of economic growth leaves scope for CPI inflation to... 26th September 2023 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Update Slower money growth shows higher rates are working The sharp slowdown in broad money growth since late last year suggests that higher interest rates are working by reducing households’ and firms’ demand for borrowing, which should lead to softer... 26th September 2023 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will deliver another hawkish hold Although economic activity has held up reasonably well thus far, we still think it will see another leg down. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our view that the RBNZ won’t lift rates any higher. That... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall through 2024 - retail to outperform With the economy showing signs of slowing and transaction volumes likely to stay low in H2 2023, a tough 6-12 months lies in store for commercial real estate. We still expect cap rates to rise on the... 25th September 2023 · 22 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly “Higher for longer” more likely than another rate hike Given clearer signs of economic weakness in recent weeks, we think the surprise increase in underlying inflation pressures in August means the Bank of Canada is more likely to keep interest rates at... 25th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (Sep.) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) confirmed that the German economy remained in the doldrums in September. We continue to expect contractions in GDP in both Q3 and Q4 of this year. 25th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update End of Yield Curve Control won’t spell fiscal disaster The abandonment of Yield Curve Control would probably prompt the Bank of Japan to reduce its bloated holdings of government bonds, which could push up long-term bond yields. However, there are good... 25th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs consistent with interest rate peaks The September Flash PMIs add to evidence that economic activity in the US and Europe is weakening. This supports our view that the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England have finished hiking interest rates. 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Why the 10-year Treasury yield could yet fall back significantly Although the 10-year Treasury yield rose further to a post-Global-Financial-Crisis high of ~4.5% in the wake of this week’s FOMC meeting, we continue to forecast that it will drop back to 3.75% by the... 22nd September 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Electoral cycle to keep rates high, but deepen cuts in 2025 A loosening in fiscal policy next year ahead of a possible election in late 2024 is another reason to think that the Bank of England will keep rates at their current level of 5.25% until late in 2024... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed at odds with the data The new projections published by the Fed this week signalled that officials are fully onboard with the idea of interest rates staying ‘higher for longer’, but that is based on forecasts for real... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key questions after the latest central bank meetings We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss the latest policy meetings of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England and what they might mean for the future path of policy and financial markets. (See the recording... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
