RBNZ Watch RBNZ will deliver another hawkish hold Although economic activity has held up reasonably well thus far, we still think it will see another leg down. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our view that the RBNZ won’t lift rates any higher. That... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ done hiking, rate cuts in Q1 2024 With inflation coming off the boil and labour market conditions starting to turn, we suspect that Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not lift interest rates any higher. To be sure, the Bank is likely to... 9th August 2023 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to stay put, rate cuts only in Q1 2024 Having raised rates more aggressively than any other developed market central bank, we think the RBNZ’s tightening cycle is now over. The Bank has already succeeded in sending the economy into... 5th July 2023 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will hike to 5.75% in July The latest data don’t tell a compelling story as far as the outlook for inflation and the economy are concerned. Although inflation expectations are falling, measures of underlying inflation are still... 17th May 2023 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will slow the pace of tightening With the latest economic data coming in weaker than it had anticipated, the RBNZ will likely opt for a smaller 25bp hike to the official cash rate (OCR) at its upcoming meeting on April 5th. We expect... 29th March 2023 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will press ahead with another 75bp hike The incoming data have been a touch softer than the RBNZ had anticipated. While we still expect the Bank to press ahead with the 75bp hike it signalled in November at the upcoming meeting on 22nd Febr... 15th February 2023 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch Rates will peak at 5.0% but will be cut by end-2023 With the labour market and inflation going from strength to strength and the next meeting three months away, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike the overnight cash rate by 75bp at its... 16th November 2022 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will hike rates all the way to 4.5% With GDP growth holding up and food inflation climbing to a fresh high, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike rates by another 50bp to 3.5% at its upcoming meeting on 5th October. And with the... 28th September 2022 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening cycle will stop by year-end Rising interest rates are weighing on the housing market but economic activity is holding up and inflation has continued to accelerate. The upshot is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike... 10th August 2022 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening cycle shows no signs of slowing Rising interest rates have started to weigh on house prices and sentiment. But inflation is probably still rising and the labour market is still tightening. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to hike... 7th July 2022 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to keep tightening aggressively The New Zealand economy was running hot even when the Omicron variant was disrupting activity. Now that the peak of the Omicron wave has passed, mobility is rebounding and inflation expectations are... 19th May 2022 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to accelerate tightening cycle with 50bp hike Inflation is set to exceed the RBNZ’s forecasts yet again this year. With the Bank becoming increasingly worried that soaring inflation will dislodge inflation expectations, we think it will hike... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ hiking cycle has further to run The New Zealand economy remained hot at the end of last year. And while the Omicron outbreak may disrupt activity in Q1, we expect the impact to be short-lived. We therefore forecast the RBNZ to... 16th February 2022 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to accelerate hiking cycle The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating. Measures of underlying inflation are mostly above the ceiling of the RBNZ’s target band. And employment is now above the Bank’s estimate of the maximum... 17th November 2021 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ finally set to hike rates New Zealand has slowed the spread of the Delta variant and eased its lockdown, which stopped the RBNZ from hiking in August. And the RBNZ still seems keen to hike rates given the red-hot economy. We... 29th September 2021 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ set to hike rates by 50 basis points The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating and the Bank’s mandates for both inflation and the labour market are now fulfilled. We therefore expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 50bps at its upcoming... 11th August 2021 · 7 mins read
