RBNZ Watch RBNZ to accelerate hiking cycle The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating. Measures of underlying inflation are mostly above the ceiling of the RBNZ’s target band. And employment is now above the Bank’s estimate of the maximum... 17th November 2021 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ finally set to hike rates New Zealand has slowed the spread of the Delta variant and eased its lockdown, which stopped the RBNZ from hiking in August. And the RBNZ still seems keen to hike rates given the red-hot economy. We... 29th September 2021 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ set to hike rates by 50 basis points The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating and the Bank’s mandates for both inflation and the labour market are now fulfilled. We therefore expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 50bps at its upcoming... 11th August 2021 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ tightening creeping closer We doubt the RBNZ will adjust any policy settings when it meets next Wednesday 14 th July. However, as the New Zealand economy continues to recover faster than the RBNZ expects we think the Bank will... 7th July 2021 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch Housing mandate won’t change the Bank’s outlook While the Bank will acknowledge the new house price requirements in its remit it is unlikely to respond to them with immediate policy changes. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to keep policy settings... 19th May 2021 · 8 mins read
RBNZ Watch Subdued data won’t faze the Bank New Zealand has probably experienced a second technical recession over the past couple of quarters. Even so, the labour market continues to recover and inflation is in good shape. So the Bank shouldn... 7th April 2021 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch Bank to continue unwinding stimulus Economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have shown the New Zealand economy recovering at a remarkable pace. The case for further monetary stimulus is therefore weak. As such, we expect the Bank... 17th February 2021 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch Lending programme to foreshadow negative rates At its meeting on 11 th November, the Bank will likely unveil a new lending programme to lower banks’ funding costs. And while the economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have been mixed, we still... 5th November 2020 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ preparing to launch negative rates The RBNZ is reaching the limits of its asset purchase program. We therefore doubt the Bank will make any significant policy changes at its meeting on Wednesday 23 rd September. Even so, the economy... 17th September 2020 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ may still cut rates into negative territory The RBNZ has stabilised the pace of asset purchases in recent months and is on track to meet its QE targets. We think the Bank will not announce any further stimulus measures on Wednesday 12th August... 5th August 2020 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch Holding off on negative rates until 2021 The RBNZ has started to reduce the pace of asset purchases as economic activity has recovered. We think the Bank will not announce any further stimulus measures on Wednesday 24th June. However, we... 18th June 2020 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch Negative rates on the horizon The RBNZ will want to wait to assess the impact of the virus outbreak on inflation and the labour market before cutting rates further. As such, we think it will not announce any further stimulus... 6th May 2020 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ should remain on hold despite coronavirus The new coronavirus will inevitably impact the New Zealand economy in the first quarter of 2020. Even so, the data has generally improved by more than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)... 5th February 2020 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ will cut further, but not until next year The economic data have been better than the Bank anticipated in their last set of forecasts in August so we suspect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will leave rates on hold at its meeting on... 6th November 2019 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will cut further…just not yet Following the dramatic 50 basis point cut in August, we suspect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday 25 th September. However, the economy is clearly on... 19th September 2019 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch Interest rates will be cut twice more this year The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee sounded almost ready to cut rates at its last meeting in June. And developments since then will have done little to mollify the Bank’s concerns. So we... 1st August 2019 · 7 mins read