Non-Farm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (2024)

The 818,000 downward revision implied by the preliminary benchmark estimate to the non-farm payroll data were roughly in line with what we had expected based on the earlier data implied by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Non-farm payroll growth from April 2023 to March 2024 looks to be softer than first thought, but not worryingly so. That supports our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in 25bp steps over the last three meetings of the year, rather than larger 50bp cuts.