Fed FOMC Minutes (Nov 6-7)

The minutes of the Fed’s early-November FOMC meeting, when it slowed the pace of policy loosening with a smaller 25bp cut, tell us little about whether to expect another smaller quarter-point cut at the upcoming policy meeting mid-December or a pause. On balance, we still anticipate another 25bp cut but, as the minutes make clear, decisions are data dependent, so November’s employment and CPI data, both due ahead of that meeting, will be pivotal.