Miami set to be the big US office market winner

Office values have further to fall in all metros this year, but from 2026 we are expecting a recovery, with the southern markets showing the way. Led by Miami, those metros will see strong rent growth on the back of a decent recovery in absorption as they continue to benefit from higher rates of office utilization and faster office employment growth. That will support capital growth over the five-year horizon of more than 15% in Miami, followed by 11.5% in Houston. But there will be further declines in all major metros and almost all western metros. Phoenix is the major outlier, and it will also benefit from a high income return component, but irrespective, Miami comes out on top with projected total returns of 9.5% p.a. over 2025-29, rising to 12.5% p.a. for 2026-29.