S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.)

The flash PMIs for December are consistent with our view that the economy is probably in a recession, although a relatively shallow one at the moment. While the price indices suggest that inflation continues to ease, they still remain high by past standards. That’s why we think CPI inflation will still be around 4.0% by the end of next year and why the Bank of England will raise rates further.

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