The final Q4 2022 GDP data suggested the economy was even more resilient in 2022 than we previously thought, as the government absorbed some of the hit to households from high inflation. But we still think that about two-thirds of the drag of higher interest rates has yet to be felt and that the economy will slip into a recession involving a peak to trough fall of about 1.0% this year.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.