RBI unlikely to loosen policy until H2 2024

We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 8th December. Further ahead, robust economic growth and upside risks to inflation mean the central bank will be in no rush to loosen policy, and we have pushed back our expectation for the start of the easing cycle to the second half of 2024. That would be a lot later than in most other major emerging markets.

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