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We doubt the recent rally marks a new dawn for Japan’s equities

We don’t think that the recent strong gains in Japan’s equity market mark the start of a significant reversal of its decades-long underperformance; we expect it to lag other markets over the rest of this year in local-currency terms and to perform broadly in line with them in dollar terms. And while we suspect it might outperform the US market a bit next year, that’s largely due to what we think will be disappointing US returns; we doubt Japan’s market will do any better than developed markets outside the US in 2024.

In view of the wider interest we are also sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our Asset Allocation service.

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