Chinese exports contracted year-on-year in November by the most since the start of the pandemic and imports dropped at the fastest pace in 30 months. We expect outbound shipments to fall further over the coming quarters, with cooling global demand overwhelming any supply-side boost from the easing of COVID restrictions. The shift away from zero-COVID and step up in support for the property sector will eventually drive a recovery in domestic demand but probably not until the second half of next year.
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