Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024)

The softer monthly gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July suggest that the previous two months reflected normal volatility rather than a stalling of the downward trend in core inflation. With core inflation on track to surprise to the downside of the Bank’s latest forecasts, and the details encouraging about the outlook, there is not much now that could derail another interest rate cut at the early September meeting. If anything, there is a growing possibility of a larger 50 bp cut later this year.