US Economics Update Fed content to play waiting game The statement issued today after the two-day FOMC meeting indicates that the majority of Fed officials are content to wait and see how the US recovery develops. In particular, the statement reaffirmed... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The annual growth rates of the broad monetary aggregates slowed only marginally in March, with the growth rate of our measure of M3 easing from 6.1% to a still very healthy 5.8% last month. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The annual growth rates of all the monetary aggregates remained strong in February, with our measure of the broadest M3 aggregate increasing by 6.0% over the past year. With the euro-zone crisis... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed remains cautious The statement released after today's FOMC meeting included a slightly more upbeat assessment of the economic outlook, but the Fed can hardly be accused of acting as a cheerleader for the recovery... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update GDP growth now likely to reach 2% this year The recent sustained run of stronger economic data, particularly on the labour market, has persuaded us to raise our GDP growth forecast to 2.0% this year, from 1.5%. We are also nudging up our 2013... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Even though our measure of M3 grew by a healthy 5.6% in the year to January, there are some signs that bank lending is starting to grow more slowly. The danger is that a sovereign debt default in the... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Euro crisis beginning to affect domestic credit The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer survey revealed that the ongoing crisis in the euro-zone is beginning to have a more marked impact on domestic credit, with foreign-owned banks tightening lending... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's anticipates that rates are on hold until late 2014 The publication today of the first set of interest rate projections by the FOMC heralded a historic change in the way that the Fed conducts monetary policy, but had little practical impact on market... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) While the growth rate of the narrower M1 money aggregate has started to slow a little, M2 growth has remained broadly unchanged and the growth rate of our reconstructed measure of the broadest M3... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators (Nov) The growth rate of all the monetary aggregates has remained steady recently, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year. 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update 2012 will be another year of sluggish growth We expect GDP growth of 1.5% for next year, down trivially from about 1.7% this year. Inflation should fall sharply to below 1% by year end, as commodity prices continue to drop back and the... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed stands pat for now The Fed put off making changes to its communications strategy and potentially announcing a third round of quantitative easing until the new year. 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Super committee failure not a disaster The apparent failure of the congressional deficit reduction super committee to reach any agreement is not the disaster it is being portrayed as by some commentators. As we argued in our most recent US... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The growth rate of money has levelled out over the past couple of months, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year. 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks batten down the European hatches The Fed's Senior Loan Officer survey shows that in the three months to October banks took steps to protect themselves from the European debt crisis. Nevertheless, the survey is still consistent with a... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode The Fed opted to stay on the sidelines today. Most probably because FOMC members want more time to judge how effective the Operation Twist programme announced at the last meeting in September has been... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
