US Economics Update Budget fight could get nasty The growing spat surrounding the possibility of a Federal government shutdown and the debate over raising the debt ceiling could turn out to be nothing more than old-fashioned political theatre, with... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Despite the acceleration in the growth rate of the narrow M1 monetary aggregate, the growth of the broader M2 aggregate remains muted and our M3 measure is still shrinking. 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's survey shows big jump in demand for business loans The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers suggests that we could see a marked turnaround in business lending this year, which would presumably boost investment and possibly even employment too... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed biding its time The tone of the Fed's latest policy statement suggests that neither the most recent pick up in economic growth nor the continued surge in commodity prices have had much of an impact on officials... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks to its guns The Fed was always going to leave the size of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) unchanged today as it is too soon to judge whether it has been a success or a failure. If we are right in... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The rate of decline in our Capital Economics' measure of M3 has eased, while the growth rates of M1 and M2 have picked up again slightly. However, there is nothing here to suggest that inflation is... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stimulus proposals could provide sizeable boost to growth The package of tax proposals agreed by the Obama administration and Republican leaders constitutes an additional fiscal stimulus worth slightly less than $300bn, or 2% of GDP, above and beyond what we... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rebound stalls The housing market recovery appears to have stalled before it even really began. Home sales fell back in October and the renewed downward trend in prices appears to have gathered pace. This is all... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Our Capital Economics' measure of M3 is falling year-on-year, albeit at a slower rate. The M2 aggregate is growing at an unusually slow pace, and credit is contracting. Over the past 12 months, the 3... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's Survey shows no evidence of loan rebound The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers reveals a disturbing drop off in the demand for new loans and the renewed tightening of credit conditions for residential mortgages and other consumer... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bouncing along the bottom The housing market recovery has yet to begin with activity more or less bouncing along the bottom. Home sales did edge further above their post-tax credit low in September, but they remained 20% below... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the G20 agree to current account targets? The G20 Summit in Korea next week (11th – 12th) will be overshadowed by the fall-out from “currency wars”, hampering any attempt at the improved coordination of policies necessary to help rebalance... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's QE2 is no game changer The Fed's new programme of asset purchases is not going to pull the US economy out of its current malaise because, given the scale of the balance sheet problems affecting households and financial... 3rd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mid-term elections point to gridlock As widely expected, the Republicans regained control of the House of Reprentatives in yesterday's midterm elections but failed to overturn the Democratic majority in the Senate. The division of power... 3rd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More dovish Bank of Canada may yet ease again (Oct 10) The Bank of Canada appears some way from further monetary tightening. Economic conditions would have to improve substantially and by enough to offset the increasing downside risks to future inflation... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
