US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The annual growth rate of our own Capital Economics measure of the M3 aggregate hit a two-year high of 4.9% in June, while the growth rates of both M1 and M2 continued to rise as well. 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed biding its time The statement issued today after the end of the two-day FOMC meeting offered no hint that the recent signs of a renewed economic slowdown might tempt the Fed to launch another round of large-scale... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rate of money, including our own Capital Economics' measure of the M3 aggregate, continued to accelerate in April, mainly in response to the Fed's quantitative easing. But with QE2... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The annual growth rate of money, including our measure of the M3 aggregate, continued to accelerate in April. Nevertheless, at a time when T-bill rates have fallen even closer to zero, we suspect this... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's survey shows diverging demand for loans The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers shows a rapidly widening divergence between the strengthening demand for commercial loans and the falling demand for residential mortgages. 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in no hurry to tighten policy In his first post-FOMC meeting press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the impression that the Fed is in no hurry to tighten monetary policy. 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Hard to argue with negative outlook on US AAA credit rating Given the size of the US Federal deficit, which will be close to 10% of GDP this year, and the daunting medium-term fiscal challenges, it is hard to argue with S&P's decision to put a negative outlook... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget fight: Round 2 The possibility of a Federal government shutdown is back on the front pages, with concern growing that no agreement will be reached before the current continuing spending resolution expires this... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to complete QE2 as planned Despite the fact that Fed officials now believe the economic recovery is on a "firmer footing" and that surging commodity prices are putting "upward pressure" on headline inflation, it looks like QE2... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Halfway through the Fed's second round of quantitative easing there is still no sign that it is boosting broad money growth. M2 is growing no faster than nominal GDP and our measure of M3, which... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget fight could get nasty The growing spat surrounding the possibility of a Federal government shutdown and the debate over raising the debt ceiling could turn out to be nothing more than old-fashioned political theatre, with... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Despite the acceleration in the growth rate of the narrow M1 monetary aggregate, the growth of the broader M2 aggregate remains muted and our M3 measure is still shrinking. 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's survey shows big jump in demand for business loans The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers suggests that we could see a marked turnaround in business lending this year, which would presumably boost investment and possibly even employment too... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed biding its time The tone of the Fed's latest policy statement suggests that neither the most recent pick up in economic growth nor the continued surge in commodity prices have had much of an impact on officials... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks to its guns The Fed was always going to leave the size of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) unchanged today as it is too soon to judge whether it has been a success or a failure. If we are right in... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
