US Economics Update Here's what the Fed should do next... The more we think about this from the perspective of what the Fed is ultimately trying to achieve, the more we're convinced that the best option would be a cut in the interest rate payable on excess... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed stands pat, but offers hint of further action soon Despite acknowledging the evident slowdown in US economic growth, the Fed declined to take any additional action at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting today. It did, however, offer a hint that... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update The economy does not have a “stall speed” The economy does not have a “stall speed” of between 1.5% and 2.0% that means whenever growth falls below this rate a recession is imminent. This is especially the case when the economy current has so... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Drought not much of a drain on US economy The drought in parts of America is unlikely to have a major economic impact. At most, the resulting rise in agricultural commodity prices will reverse only a small part of the recent fall in inflation... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed could launch its own "funding for lending" scheme Joining the dots, it is becoming clear that the Fed, and its Chairman Ben Bernanke in particular, are considering launching a US version of the Bank of England's new Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS)... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke acknowledges slowdown, but no QE3 hint Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged in his congressional testimony today that the incoming economic data had been "generally disappointing", but offerred no hint that the FOMC was close to... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The various monetary aggregates show broad money growth is both strong and stable which, at the margin, makes a third round of quantitative easing look less warranted. In contrast, our own M3 measure... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Unemployment a cyclical rather than structural problem Two data releases this morning offered only limited support to the claim made yesterday by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker that the economy is already close to full employment. 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small business confidence waning The fairly sharp decline in the NFIB's latest small business optimism index suggests that it isn't just larger export-orientated firms that have seen a drop off in demand over the past few months. 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Europe a greater drag than China The slowdown in Europe has been a greater drag on the US economy than the softening in China. With the euro-zone on the cusp of a deep recession, this trend will only become more pronounced. The... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the ISM manufacturing index overplaying the slowdown? There are a couple of reasons why the plunge in the ISM manufacturing index in June may be overplaying the extent of the recent slowdown. Even so, the clearer signs that events in Europe and China are... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No reason to fear rise in US net external liabilities The sharp deterioration in America’s net international investment position last year could be alarming as this is a key indicator of future financial crises. But a closer inspection shows that the US... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Plunging gasoline prices to fuel real consumption A further fall in gasoline prices to close to $3 a gallon, from a recent peak of $4, will provide a near-term kick to real consumption growth just at a time when it appears to be fading fast. But a... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed twists again, but no QE3 yet In the end, the Fed opted to extend its Maturity Extension Programme (aka Operation Twist) for another six months, but there was no new large-scale asset purchase programme (QE3). Nevertheless, the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Markit's new PMI looks to be a valuable addition Markit’s new US manufacturing PMI appears to be better at capturing changes in GDP growth and manufacturing output than the ISM survey. That said, the very limited history means the real test is... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The annual growth rate of our re-constructed measure of M3 eased slightly to 5.2% y/y in April, from 5.9% but, with M1 and M2 still growing at much faster rates, we see no cause for alarm. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
