US Economics Update Confidence will soon rise back after payroll tax hike hit Consumer confidence may be as much as 20 points lower than otherwise due to the effects of the payroll tax hike. But as long as employment continues to rise, gasoline prices don’t increase too much... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What should the Fed make of the labour market? The mixed messages in January's labour market report underline how hard it is for the financial markets to gauge exactly what the Fed means by its loosely defined pledge, to continue with its... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed swaps one hawk for another The latest Fed statement offers little new, apart from a change in the resident hawk on the FOMC. We still expect QE to be maintained at $85bn per month until early 2014. 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the Markit PMI leading the way or the odd one out? By pointing to an acceleration in manufacturing output growth to around 8% per year, the Markit manufacturing PMI is probably a bit too upbeat. After all, it stands out as being much more optimistic... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A brighter outlook for exporters Thanks to the recent pick up in overseas activity and the fall in the dollar, the outlook for US exporters has brightened. But without a major turnaround in economic activity in the euro-zone, export... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal uncertainty likely to be an ongoing problem Regardless of how the current debt ceiling negotiations pan out, the bigger problem is that there has been an almost complete breakdown in the working relationship between both sides in Congress. As a... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The annual growth rate of our measure of the broadest M3 monetary aggregate hit a three-and-a-half-year high of 6.4% in December, with the growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 aggregates also... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Adding R&D will boost the level of US GDP The inclusion later this year of capitalised research and development (R&D) expenditure in the national accounts will boost the level of GDP by up to 3%, with most of that additional spending being... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal cliff deal falls a long way short of what is needed The fiscal cliff deal approved by both Houses of Congress to avert most of the scheduled tax increases is better than nothing, but it didn’t include a provision to raise the debt ceiling, and the... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small firms and high-income households more downbeat The recent falls in sentiment of small businesses and high-earning consumers highlight that the fiscal cliff stand-off is weighing on activity. But the resulting hit to the economy may not be too... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will 2013 be a break-out year for the US economy? We anticipate that US GDP growth will be a modest 2.0% in 2013, before picking up to 2.5% in 2014. There are still downside risks, particularly the possibility of a renewed crisis in the euro-zone or... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Fed's latest announcement that it will be doubling its open-ended QE3 purchases to $85bn per month means that we can expect a large increase in the monetary base in 2013. As with previous rounds... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed adopts new thresholds and expands QE3 The Fed's adoption of numerical thresholds is, in practical terms, just a tweak in the framework used to signal how long it expects to leave short-term rates at near-zero. Based on the FOMC's new... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Housing recovery an upside risk to inflation Unless the housing recovery proves to be much stronger than we expect, it won’t provide a worrying boost to core CPI inflation. Nonetheless, the housing market poses an upside risk to our view that... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The annual growth rate of our measure of the broad M3 monetary aggregate edged up slightly to 5.5% in October and, with the Fed hinting at an expansion of its QE3 large-scale asset purchases in the... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Interpret Black Friday sales with caution We would warn against reading too much into the performance of retail sales on Black Friday as there is little evidence that it will set the tone for sales during the whole holiday season. More... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
