US Economics Update Obama re-election doesn’t alter bigger picture The re-election of President Obama removes one uncertainty that has been weighing on the markets over the last few months. But they are none the wiser about if, how and when Congress will deal with... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Solving the business hiring/investment puzzle Businesses are developing a split personality. The slump in capital goods orders suggests that businesses are increasingly concerned about the looming fiscal cliff and/or the global economic slowdown... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Further slump in wage growth unlikely We doubt that the fall in the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings to a record low in October is the start of another downward leg that will eventually end in outright declines in earnings... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks more willing to lend, but demand faltering The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) shows that banks are more willing to lend, but the problem is that, with global economic growth slowing and the fiscal cliff looming, US households... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economic impact of Hurricane Sandy likely to be small The flooding and power outages across large parts of the East Coast mean that Hurricane Sandy will undoubtedly hit economic output in the short-term. Some of that output will be made up before the end... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update ADP revamp should be treated with caution Recent changes to the way the ADP calculates its measure of employment means it now has an even closer historical relationship with the official payroll data. But what really matters is whether it is... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode ahead of election After the fireworks at the last FOMC meeting in mid-September, when the Fed launched an open-ended QE3 and strengthened its forward-looking guidance on leaving its policy rate at near-zero, the two... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Q3 GDP growth has downside risk Even though our 1.3% estimate for annualised third-quarter GDP growth is already well below the consensus forecast of 1.8%, we're a little concerned that growth could turn out to be even weaker... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks cut their exposure to German banks New figures show that US banks have not just continued to reduce their exposure to those euro-zone nations most in trouble, but they have also started to trim their exposure to German banks. This... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US economy developing split personality The US economy appears to be developing a split personality. Households, seemingly oblivious to the scheduled jump in marginal tax rates that will reduce their after-tax income next year, are... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While the annual growth rates of the slightly narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates have slowed in recent months, the growth rate of our broader M3 measure has accelerated. Moreover, there is a good... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US economic growth may be far from over In a new academic paper, Robert Gordon speculates that per capita economic growth in the US could permanently stagnate, as fading innovation is compounded by headwinds from demography, education... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Seasonal problems with the U6 unemployment rate Jack Welch's tweet wasn't the only piece of nonsense written last week about the reported decline in the unemployment rate to 7.8% in September. The decline in the standard measure was questioned by... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Leading indicators of unemployment rate provide little hope The indicators that provide some steer of where the unemployment rate is heading over the next few months supply little evidence that it will dip below 8%. What’s more, we doubt that GDP growth will... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How has the Fed's reaction function changed? The Fed's decision to restart its large-scale asset purchases, this time with an open-ended agency MBS programme, is part of what could potentially be a much wider shift in the monetary policy... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed‘s purchases of MBS may have limits QE3 could eventually leave the Fed holding nearly 30% of all mortgage-backed securities, making it a bigger player in the market than either banks or mutual funds. This suggests that, unless economic... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
