US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Despite the Fed’s continuing quantitative easing, the growth rates of the broad monetary aggregates have actually fallen over the past few months. The annual growth rate of our measure of the broadest... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Obama's budget will kick-start new round of negotiations President Obama's budget proposals for fiscal year 2014 will now kick-start a renewed round of negotiations in Congress that, at best, could result in a much-coveted grand bargain or, at worst if the... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US net debt to foreigners still manageable Despite endless claims that the US is hopelessly indebted to foreigners, which will eventually lead to a collapse in the dollar and/or rampant inflation, its net external liabilities are actually... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Lower vehicle prices will help to drive sales Renewed falls in vehicle prices probably won’t reduce CPI inflation by much. But, along with the latest drop in financing rates and loosening in loan criteria, they provide support to our view that... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks with its QE plans for now The Fed acknowledged in its statement today that the economy was again growing at a "moderate" pace and FOMC participants revised their forecasts for the unemployment rate slightly lower for 2014 and... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The growth rates of broad money, including our own measure of M3, have slowed recently, even as the Fed has expanded its quantitative easing. We suspect this decline reflects a fall in the... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Housing starting to boost industry and employment In addition to the direct boost to GDP from homebuilding, the housing recovery has started to provide an indirect boost by supporting both industrial activity and employment. The possibility that the... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market improvement falling short of “substantial” The recent strengthening in the labour market is encouraging, but today’s news on the rates at which workers are being hired and are quitting is further evidence that it falls short of the... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More signs of a “reach for yield” The willingness of investors to snap up the record amount of corporate bonds issued in the fourth quarter of last year may concern some Fed officials as it could be a sign that low interest rates are... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economy-wide deleveraging may be over The economy-wide deleveraging process, which has constrained the economic recovery over the past four years, may now be over. Moreover, as any remaining deleveraging in the household sector can be... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Potential student loan losses are not a systemic concern Rapidly rising delinquency rates have made us more concerned about the quadrupling in student loan debt over the past decade to £1trn. But we still don’t think this poses a major threat to the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks well placed to boost lending further The FDIC’s banking profile for the fourth quarter of last year shows that US banks are well placed to continue boosting lending to both firms and households. At the same time, there is not much... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bernanke weighs the costs and benefits of more QE Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual congressional testimony confirmed that the FOMC is paying a lot more attention to the potential costs of continuing with its quantitative easing this year... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed contemplating early end to QE3 The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting in late January suggest that rising fears over the potential costs from further quantitative easing could prompt Fed officials to reduce or even halt the... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The Fed’s QE3 policy has contributed to the acceleration in the growth rate of our M3* measure of broad money to a four-year high of 6.5% in January. But the continued expansion in the Fed’s balance... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Sequestration a secondary issue to budget talks The probability is rising that Congress won't act to prevent the sequestration spending cuts taking effect at the start of next month. On paper, that would reduce spending by $110bn per year... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
