US Commercial Property Update Scenarios for the effect of remote working on US offices Given uncertainty around the level of adoption of remote-working, change in space allocated per worker and how large any reduction in supply might be, we provide a set of potential scenarios for the... 24th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for office-based employment? We expect office-based employment growth to be faster than total employment growth by around 0.3-0.5% ppts each year over the next decade in the US, the UK and the euro-zone. The coronavirus crisis... 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Mixed signals for retail rents Despite the stronger-than-expected rebound in US high street sales, retail property still faces greater uncertainty than any other commercial sector. Not only does the upsurge in virus cases present a... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Short, sharp, downturn will prevent major LTV breaches Debt covenants generally look less stretched in this downturn than during the GFC. And, although interest cover ratios are relatively low in some REIT sub-sectors, the short, sharp, fall in capital... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS bondholders face mounting risks CMBS delinquencies have risen sharply in recent months, yet we aren’t expecting a repeat of the real estate debt meltdown witnessed in the GFC. However, non-performing loan rates are especially high... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The VIX supports our view of a 35bps rise in NOI yields We expect real estate yields to spike this year due to both a rise in the property risk premium and lower expectations for property income streams. However, breaking down the observed yield gap into... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will a flood of new apartments boost vacancies? The hit to apartment absorption from the coronavirus has occurred at the same time as a large number of new units are set to enter the market. Even with current tenants staying put, that raises the... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will the rental market bounce back? The factors that drove the resurgence in home purchase mortgage demand, including record low mortgage rates, the need for more space and the anticipation of finding a bargain, will not give a similar... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Which metros are best placed for recovery? As US states emerge from lockdown and the worst of the economic crisis appears to be over, thoughts are turning to the recovery. In this, not all parts of the US will be equal. Some insight into the... 5th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Real estate yields will still hit new lows in this cycle In a world in which central banks and governments are likely to ensure that sovereign bond yields stay low for the long-term, real estate is well-placed to benefit. Therefore, although we expect... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What is REIT sub-sector performance telling us? The partial recovery in REIT prices since their late March trough gives further support to our view that all-property capital value falls will not exceed 10% this year. But, with data centres, single... 29th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Spring 2020) Forecasts for all indicators in 2020 have shown a marked deterioration since the interim year-end 2019 forecast published in January. While the consensus sector ranking is in line with our March... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office rent growth outlook downgraded Our initial expectations that office landlords would see only a limited and short-lived fall in occupier demand have given way to a growing likelihood of a more adverse outlook. We have therefore... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update US investors would do well to stay at home In light of the pandemic, our forecasts for developed market commercial property returns have been revised lower. Nevertheless, the relativities between the key markets are broadly unchanged, meaning... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Flexible offices pose a risk to otherwise insulated sector Relative to its performance in the GFC, the office sector should be fairly resolute in this downturn. However, the rapid growth of flexible office space poses a downside risk in some markets. What’s... 27th April 2020 · 3 mins read
