US Commercial Property Update Revising the peak-to-trough price fall to just 5% Our upcoming Outlook will detail major upgrades to our capital value expectations. Rather than a total fall of around 10% at the all-property level, we now expect the cumulative decline to be just 5%. 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Vaccine will not provide a quick fix for real estate News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term... 2nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Fall in FTB share good news for future rental demand Rising rental vacancy rates in large cities have not been accompanied by a surge in first-time buyers (FTBs). Indeed, 2020 saw the lowest share of FTBs since 1987. That implies many of those rental... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartments, retail and the terrible Ts: Tech & Tourism Cities with a large tourism sector, such as Las Vegas and Orlando, still employ 10% fewer people than they did in February, which will hurt retail spending and apartment demand. And, while office... 10th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Swathes of sublease space will soon hit office rents The volume of available sublease space already exceeds that seen in the last two downturns. And an average discount of 20% to landlord asking rents, rising to 30%-plus in some cities, will reduce the... 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Falling CMBS delinquencies explain slower debt growth Outstanding commercial real estate debt held by banks is likely to rise again in the coming months, providing the improvement in investment transactions seen in September continues. Yet even if there... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial yields could be 50bps below offices by 2022 The industrial sector could see a further increase in its share of investment in the coming quarters thanks to both its own resilience and concerns surrounding the other sectors. Those diverging... 19th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2020) Consensus forecasts for this year have been revised upwards, although the outlook for total returns remains negative. At the same time, the prospects for 2021-22 have been downgraded, but only... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What could the election mean for commercial property? While Joe Biden is currently favourite to win the election, we don’t think the winner’s identity will have a major effect on the economy. We also don’t expect it to substantially alter the prospects... 7th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hopes fading for a real estate bounce next year While we continue to think that this year’s property downturn will be milder than in past cycles, next year’s recovery is looking more fragile. This in part reflects revisions to our economic view... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Does COVID-19 mean the end of real estate’s bull run? Commercial property has outperformed both Treasuries and equities in the last two decades, but the fast-forward of structural change caused by COVID-19 will mean that in the next decade property is... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Remote working fatigue won’t derail long-run adoption Low utilization of office space supports our expectations of weak short-term demand. And, despite some firms raising concerns over productivity as the current remote work “experiment” continues, there... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will the eviction ban boost rent arrears? In contrast to the surge in mortgage forbearance following the CARES Act, we doubt the recently announced eviction ban will trigger a jump in rental arrears. For those who can afford it, deciding not... 4th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment to stay well below 2019 levels through 2021 Commercial real estate transactions are on course to fall by nearly 50% this year, despite a strong Q1. And with the latest data hinting that our downside scenario is now looking more likely, volumes... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update When it comes to retail, bigger is no longer better Retail malls are set to fare badly in this downturn as Americans avoid enclosed spaces and adopt online shopping practices. But regional and super-regional malls, which were already underperforming... 28th August 2020 · 3 mins read
