US Housing Market Update Government support will prevent surge in rent arrears Jobless claims have reached 26 million, but by the end of last week the share of apartment tenants making a full or partial rental payment in April was down by just four percentage points compared to... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office foundations look less shaky this time around After a decade of relatively cautious real estate lending and steady, rather than stunning, economic growth, office development has remained fairly subdued. What’s more, for both practical and... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update REIT price falls consistent with a 5%-10% value drop The nearly 40% peak-to-trough fall in US REIT prices points to a fall of around 5%-10% in direct real estate capital values, providing this proves to be a relatively short-lived recession. At a sector... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Winners and losers in retail property Retail property looks most heavily exposed to the disruption from the coronavirus crisis. But not all retail is equal and different sectors will see very different impacts. In our view, neighbourhood... 3rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Short downturn should help insulate property yields Elevated corporate bond yields suggest that property investors should be concerned about future cashflows. However, unprecedented policy support should help most companies stay afloat. And evidence... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property is the victim not the villain this time Property has generally been at the centre of the most severe economic downturns in recent decades. But this time it is different. Although we think the commercial market is likely to experience a... 26th March 2020 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How far could transactions fall? Our base case points to investment activity falling by 45% this year, with Q2 and Q3 seeing particularly weak deal volumes, before a decent recovery in Q4. From a historical perspective, this would be... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What could further policy support mean for real estate? The additional cuts in the Fed Funds rate that we expect to see in the next couple of months, as well as the government’s likely fiscal support, will help shore up investor confidence. Despite a... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does COVID-19 mean for commercial real estate? The recent market meltdown reflects concerns about the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus. This will inevitably hit commercial property, but in our view, the downside is likely to be relatively... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Could South Korean inflows be set for a resurgence? Last year saw a fall in foreign investment into US commercial property, but South Korean inflows bucked the trend. This year could see a similar level of activity from Korean investors, but given... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial returns have peaked, but will stay strong We think that 2020 will be the eleventh consecutive year of double-digit total returns for industrial property. However, we also think it will be the last in this cycle, as slower yield falls from... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment rent growth to benefit from home shortage Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What’s debt got to do with it? The worst commercial real estate busts have tended to follow a ramping-up in lending activity, driven by the availability of debt rising and its cost falling. However, regularly updated Fed lending... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Tech sector to drive San Francisco office rental growth Rapid employment growth in the technology and information industries has been behind a surge in demand for office space in San Francisco. Even if this growth were to slow somewhat, we expect... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Commercial property to outperform bonds and equities Over the next two years we expect US property to produce total returns of over 7.5% p.a. This would be stronger than any of the last three years and, more importantly, would be a better outturn than... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
