UK Economics Update More QE in May still in the balance Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to stay the course and complete the previously authorised asset purchases was always likely, given the pattern of past QE decisions. While the... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The continued weakness of the broad money and lending figures supports our view that the Monetary Policy Committee will yet have to provide the economy with even more stimulus. 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is government spending falling? Recent claims that, despite the fiscal squeeze, government spending is still rising in real terms have revived the debate about whether the spending plans are actually as tough as they look. But while... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK banks still heavily exposed to the euro-zone Today’s Bank of England figures showed that UK banks further reduced their exposures to European countries in the final quarter of last year. Nonetheless, the euro-zone debt crisis continues to pose a... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Droughts could slow fall in inflation Droughts across the UK and some of Western Europe are threatening to push up food prices. Along with the recent rise in energy prices, this might prevent CPI inflation from falling as sharply as hoped... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Mar.) The latest regional figures suggest that the economic recovery remains weakest of all in Northern Ireland, but has continued to gather momentum the most in the West Midlands. Meanwhile, although the... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 100 year gilt issue underlines UK safe-haven status Reports that the Chancellor is considering issuing bonds of 100 years or more in order to take advantage of the government’s low borrowing costs underline the UK’s perceived safe-haven status relative... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consensus wrong in thinking MPC done with QE Reports that the Chancellor is considering issuing bonds of 100 years or more in order to take advantage of the government’s low borrowing costs underline the UK’s perceived safe-haven status relative... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 0.5% rates - 3 years down, another 3 to go? Tomorrow’s MPC meeting marks the third anniversary of interest rates reaching a record low of just 0.5% in March 2009. We think that they could stay at this level for another three years. 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Focus on oil prices neglects wider commodity picture The recent rise in oil prices has sparked fears that CPI inflation will not fall as fast as hoped. However, the focus on oil prices ignores the fact that other commodity prices have risen by less, if... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The broad money supply bounced back in January, suggesting that the extreme weakness at the end of last year was just temporary. But the underlying trend still looks too weak to support a sustained... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ECB reduces risk of UK credit crunch, for now The ECB’s second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) conducted this morning should alleviate the risk of a renewed credit crunch, not just in the euro-zone, but in the UK too. However, UK bank... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers in a sweet spot The rise in consumer spending in the final quarter of last year added to other evidence that the consumer recovery is gaining momentum. Falling inflation should continue to alleviate the squeeze on... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update PPI payments don’t change consumer spending outlook Today’s data from the FSA showed that banks are picking up the pace at which they are compensating consumers for mis-sold Payment Protection Insurance (PPI). While the compensation will provide a... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Feb.) Most of the UK regions shared in the improvement in output growth suggested by the national and global activity surveys in January. But labour and housing markets in the North are continuing to fare... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Euro-zone recession to hit UK exports soon The recent rise in oil prices has sparked fears that CPI inflation will not fall as fast as hoped. However, the focus on oil prices ignores the fact that other commodity prices have risen by less, if... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
