UK Economics Update Encouraging private sector investment should be part of any Plan B Creating more favourable conditions for private sector investment is just one of the ways in which the Government could help the economy to survive the fiscal squeeze without actually rowing back on... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Jul.) The latest regional indicators suggest that the North-South economic divide has continued to widen, with a pick-up in output growth in the South – particularly in London – failing to broaden out to... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What consumers need most is lower commodity prices It is often assumed that the fiscal squeeze is driving the current weakness of consumer spending and that government measures – such as a VAT cut – are all that are needed to get the consumer recovery... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bounce in UK equities unlikely to continue The recent fall in UK equities seems a bit overdone relative to the news on the domestic economy. Nonetheless, UK equities may continue to struggle if risks build in the global financial system. 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Stock market turmoil increases double dip risks The possible adverse effects of the recent sharp fall in equity prices on confidence and consumers’ wealth have increased the risks that the economy starts to contract again. While our central... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Struggling recovery needs low interest rates The MPC’s decision to re-launch its quantitative easing programme today confirms that the Committee finally recognises that the major threat to the UK is renewed recession, not inflation. But previous... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Four reasons why gilt yields will stay low Gilt yields have fallen sharply since February, with 10-year yields now equal to the 50-year or so low of 2.75% that they reached in March 2009. But there are good reasons to think that gilt yields... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Broad money and lending growth remained exceptionally weak in July, suggesting that nominal GDP growth is likely to ease back in time. The case for more quantitative easing is getting stronger. 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Which measure of employment is right? There has been a striking divergence between the two main measures of employment recently. But regardless of which is painting the more accurate picture, the labour market outlook remains poor. 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Extra QE more likely than a rate rise With the economic recovery still showing few signs of regaining momentum, the case for raising interest rates is looking weak. Indeed, we think that over the next couple of years renewed quantitative... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) There are still no signs of any pick-up in broad money or lending growth, suggesting that the medium-term outlook for both economic growth and inflation remains pretty weak. 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Low rates needed to get recovery back on track With the economic recovery still showing few signs of regaining momentum, the case for raising interest rates is looking weak. Indeed, we think that over the next couple of years renewed quantitative... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Plan B worries underline low interest rate outlook The ongoing concerns over the lack of a “Plan B”, should the economy be weaker than the Government’s fiscal plans assume, underline the need for interest rates to stay low for a long time yet. 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fringes of UK to be worst affected by fiscal squeeze The relative performance of the regions of the UK over the next few years depends in part on their different exposure to the public sector and the fiscal squeeze. The fringes of the UK – and Northern... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary indicators show that broad money growth remains exceptionally weak, suggesting that the recent slowdown in the pace of economic recovery may be more than just a temporary soft... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has the manufacturing recovery run out of steam? The industrial recovery appears to have come off the boil. However, although the manufacturing sector now looks unlikely to return to the impressive 5% plus annual growth rates seen towards the end of... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
