UK Economics Update A fiscal ‘free lunch’? The debate around fiscal policy has tended to become polarised between advocates of austerity, who argue that any relaxation of deficit reduction would bring down the wrath of markets, and opponents... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) April’s household borrowing figures painted a weak picture, suggesting that lending growth is still too weak to foster a sustainable recovery in consumer spending. 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) With money growth still very weak, we continue to think that another extension of quantitative easing is very close. 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would a Greek exit mean for gilts? Although a Greek exit from the euro-zone might indirectly tarnish gilts’ safe-haven status, the economic disruption that it would cause would probably apply additional downward pressure on gilt yields... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Zigzag year to mask weak underlying trend Mervyn King characterised 2012 as a “zigzag year”. Output will certainly bounce around over the next few quarters, but we expect the underlying trend to be flat to slightly down. 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Drop in household wealth another drag on spending The recent fall in household wealth highlights one key way in which consumers are already suffering from the impact of the Greek debt crisis. A sustained recovery in real household spending continues... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (May) According to the latest figures, differences in regional economic growth rates have begun to narrow. Meanwhile, there are signs that London’s economic recovery is starting to be undermined by emerging... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower petrol prices to add some fuel to consumer recovery The recent fall in oil prices should, if maintained, bring petrol prices down by enough to boost consumers’ annual disposable incomes by about 0.2%. However, this will not be enough to stop real pay... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would a Grexit mean for the UK? The UK has few direct exposures to Greece. However, if Greece defaults on its debt, and perhaps leaves the euro-zone, the UK would still stand to suffer indirectly from the fallout. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update QE3 likely later this year Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to pause its programme of asset purchases shows that the Committee is putting greater weight on the recent stickiness of inflation than the poor... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Overall broad money growth remains extraordinarily weak. The MPC’s preferred measure of M4 is stronger, but the monetary indicators as a whole point to the need for further quantitative easing. 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the austerity backlash spreading to the UK? A bad result for the Government in Thursday’s local elections would suggest that the austerity backlash seen in the euro-zone has spread to the UK. But the coalition still seems set to stick to its... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are the official GDP figures too gloomy? The substantial divergence between the preliminary estimate of GDP and the closely-watched CIPS activity surveys has led many to question whether the official figures will be revised stronger in time... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will borrowing respond to the recovery as the OBR hopes? We doubt that economic growth will be as strong as the OBR expects. But even if it is right, it may be too optimistic about the positive impact this will have on the public finances. 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Apr.) The latest regional figures suggest that the pace of economic recovery has increasingly diverged between the regions, with growth strengthening in most areas of the Midlands and the South, but... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Shale gas will transform the UK energy market (eventually) It may still be many years before the UK’s huge reserves of shale gas can be profitably exploited on a large scale, but the impact could then be significant. Even in the near term, the boom in the... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
