UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun) June’s household borrowing figures showed a continuation of the modest expansion in credit seen in recent months. But with mortgage approvals unexpectedly declining, evidence of a marked rise in... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling inflation will benefit some more than others While all households have faced elevated inflation in recent years, the experience has not been uniform. However, differences in inflation rates are likely to be narrower over the next few years than... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Help to Buy may help to re-elect The Chancellor is today meeting major lenders and housebuilders to discuss how the second (mortgage guarantee) element of the Government’s Help to Buy programme will work. While the policy has been... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t take the pick-up in money growth too literally Boris Johnson suggests closing Heathrow and building a new airport at either Stansted or the Isle of Grain. (He is distancing himself from his original ‘Boris Island’ idea.) There could be serious... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment threshold would have its problems With Mark Carney having already primed expectations at July’s MPC meeting, we still expect the MPC to embark on full-blown forward guidance at its meeting next month. An unemployment threshold is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pound could play a greater role in policy under Carney Following Mr Carney’s arrival at the Bank of England, the pound this week touched its lowest level against the dollar since 2010. The fact that the new Governor seems to have had no qualms about... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will gilts decouple from US Treasuries? The continued lockstep movement of gilt and Treasury yields has called into question whether the new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney faces an impossible task trying to decouple the two. However... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer recovery faces bigger risks than higher rates The recent jump in long-term interest rates has raised concerns over the impact of higher borrowing costs on the nascent consumer recovery. While the rise clearly isn’t helpful, the continued squeeze... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Interest rates to stay low despite recovering economy We are publishing our latest UK Quarterly Review today and the economic mood has brightened considerably since the last Review when a triple-dip was still a real possibility. Although GDP growth over... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC takes first step towards forward guidance Although the Monetary Policy Committee left interest rates and quantitative easing unchanged at new Governor Mark Carney’s first meeting today, it took the first step towards introducing some sort of... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recent rise in yields need not spell fiscal gloom The recent jump in UK government borrowing costs is hardly a welcome development in the face of a budget deficit that remains historically high. But with some rise in yields already factored into... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) While broad money growth is holding firm, bank lending is continuing to contract. Although the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme appears to have stimulated consumer lending, corporate... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s household borrowing figures show that, with households continuing to take on new debt and signs of life in the housing market, a consumer recovery may be taking root. But with real incomes... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending recovery built on fragile foundations Today’s news on the state of households’ finances shows that consumer spending is continuing to rise despite falling real incomes. But that this is only being achieved by a sharp fall in saving... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending Review details only fraction of the pain left There were virtually no changes in the overall fiscal plans in today’s Spending Review. Accordingly, the Review did nothing to alter the prospect of a prolonged period of government spending cuts. In... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending Review to underline uphill battle facing recovery Next Wednesday’s Spending Review will essentially just flesh out how the cuts that have already been announced will be achieved. Nonetheless, the Government may use it to shift around its spending in... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
