UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Growth of the broad money supply is still quite strong, but it is heading in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, the recent loosening of credit conditions has not fed through into a meaningful pick-up in... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures provided further evidence that the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is having a beneficial impact on credit growth. Nonetheless, the recovery in lending is... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Companies running faster just to stand still While the economy may be entering a “triple-dip”, employment growth continues to be surprisingly strong. A look at which sectors are creating jobs suggests that part of the rise in employment reflects... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising car sales unlikely to signal general consumer pick-up One rare bright spot in the consumer sector recently has been the pick-up in spending on cars. While cars comprise a relatively small part of overall consumer spending, this could still be promising... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sharp fall in the pound wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing Concerns are building that sterling is on the brink of a sharp fall. While certainly possible, it is not as inevitable as some appear to assume. And it might not be such a bad thing in any case. 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The themes of the festive trading period It is looking pretty clear that the festive period was fairly underwhelming in terms of overall sales for the retail sector. But what do the retailers’ updates tell us of winners, losers and other... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE still in prospect (Jan 13) Although the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left policy on hold again today, we expect to see more quantitative easing (QE) this year, as well as a possible shift towards more radical options. 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update RPI inflation should still fall despite lack of reforms Given that the National Statistician has decided not to alter the way RPI inflation is measured, the RPI rate will continue to run above the CPI measure for the foreseeable future. However, we still... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) Household borrowing continued to stagnate in November. While there are growing signs that the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is having a positive impact on borrowing costs, this is... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The broad money supply is continuing to expand at a decent pace, but growth has been easing off. Meanwhile, bank lending remains weak although there is some indication of a loosening in credit... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recent rise in gilt yields unlikely to herald upward trend Building hopes of global economic recovery, the deterioration in the UK’s inflation outlook and growing fiscal worries have combined to push 10-year gilt yields above 2% today for the first time since... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Real consumer spending to stagnate in 2013 Christmas trading on the high street appears to have been reasonable, but unspectacular. Following a difficult 2012, we do not have high hopes for retailers in 2013. In fact, consumer spending is... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Economic malaise reflects more than energy sector’s decline Contrary to recent suggestions, the sluggishness of the economic recovery cannot be blamed in large part on the energy sector. The economy’s problems run deeper than this. 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Any major boost to GDP from shale gas still some way off As well as raising hopes about the UK’s future energy independence, the Government’s decision to allow “fracking” in the North West of England to recommence has fostered optimism that the UK economy... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is it time to inject some reality into inflation targeting? Inflation continues to be boosted by external factors over which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can exercise little influence. One way to give the MPC more scope to help the economy could be to... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement confirms poor consumer spending outlook In order to fund corporate tax cuts and an infrastructure boost, yesterday’s Autumn Statement heaped more pain on consumers. Indeed, by announcing more benefit cuts for 2013 and 2014, and confirming... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
