UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Oct.) We think that this Wednesday’s labour market figures will show that the unemployment rate held steady in August, which could prompt markets to push back further their expected timing of the first rise... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC likely to have been united in standing pat With interest rate expectations dropping back a bit over the last month and the recovery continuing apace, today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave policy unchanged was... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Outlook for property costs positive despite business rates rise Next week’s inflation figures look set to confirm that retailers will be burdened with another fairly hefty rise in business rates in April. While pressure is growing on the coalition to support... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Interest rates to stay low despite recovering economy Today we are publishing our latest UK Quarterly Review, in which we are revising up our growth forecasts. Stronger growth should not stop inflation falling back to target. It won’t prevent... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should retailers be worried by the minimum wage proposals? While tomorrow’s rise in the national minimum wage (NMW) is small, proposals to increase it significantly more in the future threaten to add to the pressure on retailers’ profit margins. But even if... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While the pick-up in certain measures of broad money is another encouraging sign that the economy has turned a corner, the continued weakness of bank lending could prevent the economic recovery from... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) Growth in household credit continues to show no sign of breaking away from the subdued rates seen since 2008, with any nascent ‘bubble’ in the housing market not yet apparent in the borrowing data... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Q2 sees improvement in households' financial strength Today’s news on the state of households’ finances shows that incomes and saving recovered from the dips seen in Q1. With the financial position of households looking more sustainable, modest growth in... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Financial Policy Committee plays down bubble fears Today’s statement by the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) lacked drama. While the Committee is keeping a close eye on developments in the housing market, the approach for now is... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Different MPC views could further weaken forward guidance Mark Carney’s forward guidance has been unsuccessful in convincing the markets that the Bank Rate is likely to remain on hold until 2016. Speeches from other MPC members in the last two days... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will a rising profit share be less lucrative for the economy? With recent data showing no sign of a pick-up in workers’ pay, the economic recovery looks promising for UK firms’ profits. But it is questionable quite how much this will aid in rebalancing the... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Workforce to receive boost from Romanians and Bulgarians Relatively strong growth in the workforce is one factor that should prevent the unemployment rate from falling quickly towards the Bank of England’s 7% threshold. An influx of workers from Romania and... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Housebuilding should continue to support the recovery Although there are worries that the Government’s housing schemes will push up house prices rather than activity, housebuilding has picked up and we expect it to give further support to the recovery. 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Have exporters diversified at the wrong time? The recent slowdown in emerging market (EM) economies begs the question of whether UK exporters have shot themselves in the foot by expanding into these markets in recent years. However, the growth... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won't ignore wider measures of labour market slack By choosing the unemployment rate as its threshold for forward guidance, the MPC has been criticised for using a fairly narrow measure of slack in the labour market. However, we doubt that this will... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update But is it the right type of recovery for the Chancellor? 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
