UK Economics Update Is retailers’ pricing power starting to strengthen? The sharp rise in core inflation in June reported by today’s official consumer prices figures contrastswith timelier survey evidence suggesting that discounting on the high street has been... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are weak tax receipts a sign the recovery is flagging? The public finances, particularly tax receipts, have made a disappointing start to this fiscal year. However, recent fiscal data have been distorted by several temporary factors, suggesting that they... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Easing inflation bolsters case for MPC inaction Although the economic recovery appears to be heading into the second half of this year with plenty of momentum, the continued weakening of inflationary pressures suggests that today’s decision by the... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun. 14) May’s money and credit figures provided some more signs that the housing market recovery has lost some steam. Meanwhile, although the consumer recovery has continued apace, it has not lead to an... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Disposable income still falling, but outlook remains bright The latest data on the state of households’ finances revealed another disappointing fall in disposable income. But households’ balance sheets remain fairly healthy overall, and we continue to expect... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the World Cup kick off a spending spree? With replica shirts, curved televisions and crates of beer all heavily advertised, the World Cup is clearly an important event for many retailers. But while this summer’s football extravaganza is... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no pressing need to tighten While the strength of the economic recovery may have pushed one or two MPC members closer to voting to raise interest rates at today’s meeting, we still think that the benign inflation outlook and a... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 14) Although the latest figures showed further signs of subdued growth in broad money and particularly bank lending, we doubt that this is a sign the economic recovery will lose steam soon. Indeed, it... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) April’s money and credit figures suggest that new mortgage rules have stifled the recovery in housing market activity. But with real incomes rising and confidence strengthening, a gradual recovery in... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Low inflation keeps the MPC on hold While the strength of the housing market may have made for an animated discussion at today’s MPC meeting, the benign inflation outlook suggests that tighter monetary policy is still not a near-term... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) Whilst March’s money and credit data suggested that the housing market recovery may be coming off the boil, there are signs that the consumer recovery is finally feeding through into stronger... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is there slack among the self-employed? The sharp rise in self-employment is one reason among many to think that the unemployment rate understates the amount of slack in the labour market and the broader economy. 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can Mr Osborne declare victory? While the UK economy may have withstood the fiscal consolidation rather better than the IMF and other critics anticipated, there are reasons why George Osborne may want to think twice before declaring... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rate hikes remain distant given inflation outlook With inflation falling and plenty of slack still left in the labour market, today’s no-change decision by the MPC is likely to have been unanimous again. And with the UK set for a favourable period of... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar 14.) February’s money and lending figures provide further reassurance that the economic recovery has maintained its strong pace this year and is not being powered by a surge in credit. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) Although overall household borrowing rose in February, the sharp fall in mortgage approvals suggests that activity in the housing market may be stabilising. Accordingly, the housing recovery does not... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
