UK Economics Update Fiscal paths not as different as manifestos imply The political parties’ manifestos have confirmed that the scale of the fiscal squeeze could be very different depending on which of them is in power. But there are various factors that will probably... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: UK could now be in deflation Tuesday’s inflation figures could well show that the UK entered deflation last month. But the fact that this mainly reflects lower energy prices makes it a good thing for the economy and there is no... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to leave rates on hold for at least another year The MPC left policy unchanged this month against a backdrop of looming deflation. The recent rise in the pound, weakening in the inflation outlook, softer US news and sharper planned government... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer recovery rests on strong foundations The latest figures on households’ finances provided some further encouraging evidence that the consumer recovery rests on solid foundations. With real incomes set to rise robustly this year, and... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) February’s household borrowing figures provided further confirmation that strong consumer spending is not the result of a borrowing binge. 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest money and credit figures provided further evidence that the economic recovery is not fuelling an unsustainable pick-up in credit. 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Still on track for negative inflation soon Tuesday’s inflation figures are likely to show the UK taking another step further towards deflation. And the recent rise in the pound will put additional downward pressure on inflation further ahead... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Big squeeze still lies ahead after election Whilst there were a few sweeteners for households in this year’s Budget, the boost to households’ incomes in the near term was meagre. Accordingly, it is strong consumer confidence, rising real wages... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Budget Checklist 2015 This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Budget at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. For a more detailed look at our... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC waiting to be sure deflation will not linger The MPC’s decision to stand pat today – marking the 6 th anniversary of interest rates at their record low of 0.5% – looks set to repeated over the next few months while inflation hovers near zero... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The latest money and credit figures indicated that the economic recovery is continuing to progress at a robust pace without leading to the rapid accumulation of debt. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.) January’s household borrowing figures added to other evidence suggesting that the recovery in housing market activity is starting to re-gain some momentum. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the FTSE 100 still a bellwether for the UK economy? The FTSE 100’s close above its previous all-time high will no doubt be heralded as another milestone in the UK’s economic recovery. But the reality is that the index has underperformed many other... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC stays focused on deflation risks Presumably today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was again unanimous after deflation concerns prompted Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty to drop their call for a rate hike last month. An... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil price rebound does not eliminate chance of deflation The recent rebound in the oil price does not mean that the UK will necessarily avoid a spell of deflation, although it does increase the chance that the spell is brief and shallow. 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could QE come back on the agenda? With deflation imminent, QE underway in the euro-zone and sterling rising, a case could be made for the MPC to restart its own asset purchase programme. But recent falls in market interest rates mean... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
